Is Moscow Finally Going to Focus on Super-High Mortality Rates?

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 2 – Having reduced infant mortality about as far as it can and seemingly powerless to boost the birthrate significantly among Russians, Moscow appears set to begin to try to cut super-high mortality rates among adults and especially among adult males, a far more difficult challenge and one the Russian authorities have devoted less attention to in the past.

            The reasons for this are both statistical and financial. Statistically, it is possible to boost both the total population and life expectancy by improving survival rates among newborns. And financially, it is actually less expensive to do that than to fight adult diseases and behaviors which often require changes in life styles such as lower levels of alcohol consumption.

            But a statement today by Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova about what she described as the “catastrophic” decline in the population of the Russian Federation, a decline of about 149,000 in the first four months of 2019, appeared to give equal attention to birthrates and to mortality rates (news.ru/obshestvo/golikova-schitaet-ubyl-naseleniya-rossii-katastroficheskoj/).

            The current rapid decline, she said, “means that births are falling and the rates of reduction of mortality are not what we would like.” Moreover, she said, the situation is even worse than many regions are reporting. Some in pursuit of good numbers are cutting reported deaths from cancer and circulatory diseases.

            In the past, Golikova has spoken almost exclusively about boosting birthrates. The fact that she is now talking about mortality rates suggests a change, albeit one that will be especially difficult to address given economic difficulties and Vladimir Putin’s health “optimization” campaign which has reduced the access of many Russians to medical care.

            Meanwhile, Rosstat released data showing mortality and fertility rates by region but giving more prominence to the former than in the past.  One reason for this may be that the statistics agency reported that Moscow city was first and Moscow oblast second in terms of the number of deaths in 2018 (russian.rt.com/russia/news/640415-regiony-smertnost-rozhdaemost).

            If Golikova does take the lead in shifting the focus from fertility to mortality, she will be confronted by many entrenched interests including in the Kremlin itself and likely be defeated. But by focusing attention on an aspect of demography most Russian officials have long shied away from, she may prompt a new public discussion about where the country should be moving.