Wednesday, December 11, 2019

After Putin, Reformers Must Move Quickly and Decisively or There Will be Another Putin, Savvin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 9 – Many are now talking about the need for another Perestroika after Vladimir Putin leaves the scene, but few are focusing on what needs to be done so that such an effort will not fail in the same way that its predecessor did and lead to the rise of a new Putin-style regime, Dimmitry Savvin says.

            But for those who do not want to see yet another cyclical development in which hopes for change are dashed and a neo-Soviet authoritarian system restored after only a brief interval, as has just happened, knowing what needs to be done and how it should be must be the focus of attention now, according to the editor of the conservative Riga-based Harbin portal.

            Otherwise, “the neo-Soviet nomenklatura-oligarchic leadership … having satisfied society with a more or less illusory liberalization will inevitably move toward the restoration of dictatorship” and will thus repeat what happened between 1992 and 2008, Savvin argues (harbin.lv/vysoty-kotorye-nam-neobkhodimo-vzyat).

            He suggests six areas in which those who hope for irreversible reforms of the Russian system need to be thinking about now in order to prevent the restoration of a neo-Soviet dictatorship after only a few years of apparent success of the democratic project:

            First, he argues, the country must engage in thorough-going decommunization, “the total destruction of the Soviet ideological-propagandistic and symbolic system. All communist symbols must be completely and immediately prohibited” and everything associated with that system immediately banned.

            Second, he calls for the restoration of legal succession from historical Russia by means of the convention of the Constituent Assembly.

            Third, he says that lustration is “the only means of realizing not a nominal but a real change of the ruling stratum and the creation for the formation of a national elite.” This also must be done quickly and radically or those who remain from the old system will inevitably coalesce and undermine the new.

            Fourth, there must be moves to restore property so as to radically privatize the economy and create a new middle class. (Savvin has already discussed this and so does not go into detail. See harbin.lv/reanimatsiya-russkogo-pravosoznaniya as discussed at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/09/restoring-legal-culture-in-russia.html).

                Fifth, Savvin argues, there must be created a parliamentary system with only a weak president.  The experience of the last 30 years shows that where parliaments are strong as in the Baltic countries, democracy and capitalism flourish but where presidential systems have been established, dictatorship and state control of the economy and society have been restored.

            The often-invoked argument of Ivan Ilin that there must be a national dictatorship for any transition is wrong: any such dictatorship won’t give way to democracy: it will keep itself in power and there won’t be the transition it is supposed to make possible, the Russian conservative commentator says.

            And sixth, the population must arm itself both to defend those forces that seek to create democratic institutions and to constrain those in the current regime from thinking that they can repress the population without consequences. If the siloviki know that the people will shoot back, they will behave differently.

            These six ideas, Savvin says, are goals rather than a program for specific action. At present, “we are at a stage when ideological and propagandistic work is extremely important” and talking about these principles is critical. What steps will have to be taken and when will be dictated by events but hopefully will be informed by these ideas.

            Unless the new movement toward democracy and freedom is informed by them, Savvin concludes, Russia won’t experience a genuine liberalization but only “a short-lasting breathing space and after ten to fifteen years, we will return to another neo-Soviet dictatorship.”

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