Russia’s Population Decline Means There May Soon Not Be Enough Men for Army and Security Services, Lokosov Warns

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 1 – Russia’s demographic decline over the last three decades has been so severe that soon there may not be enough men for the military or security services, according to Vyacheslav Lokosov, director of the Institute for Social-Economic Problems of Population of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

           

            That is just one of the five consequences that decline that he discussed at a conference on the Fundamental Problems of the Development of Contemporary Russian Society (govoritmagadan.ru/doktor-nauk-v-lokosov-s-1992-goda-my-nabljudaem-unikalnyj-process-20-let-depopulyacii-v-mirnoe-vremya-strana-poteryala-14-millionov-chelovek/).

                The other four, Lokosov says, are a significant decline in the size of the workforce, its rapid aging with ever fewer workers having to support ever more pensioners, changes in the ethnic structure of the population, and security risks arising from the outflow of population from Siberia and the Russian Far East.

             These are projections based on what has happened since 1992, “a unique process of 20 years of depopulation during peace time” in which the Russian Federation lost 14 million. The decline has been so large and so rapid that the country’s population risks becoming “a non-renewable resource.”

            The losses Russia has suffered, Lokosov continues, are equivalent to “a major and lengthy war,” and “data about mortality rates among men of working age also recall military reports. In addition, “the total number of people who have died over the last 30 years from murders, suicides, and misuse of alcohol exceeds three million.”

            Government claims to the contrary, migration will not make up for this; and current demographic patterns suggest that the situation may soon get even worse.  “In approximately two-thirds of Russian families, there is one child.” But according to the World Health Organization, when the share of such families exceeds 15 percent, this is a social problem.

            In addition, Lokosov says, there are two other worrying trends: The number of women of prime child-bearing age cohorts is at its lowest level since 1990, an indication that there are fewer women who could have children.  And the health of those children being born is worse. The completely healthy have fallen from 49 percent 30 years ago to only 12 percent now.