By Mid-2020s, Russia will Fall Further Behind Econmically Compared to Others, Zhelin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 31 – New International Monetary Fund projections suggest that by the middle of the new decade, Russia will fall further behind almost all other countries, not just those it has traditionally viewed as ahead of it but even those it never imagined might surpass it, Rosbalt commentator Sergey Shelin says.

            In 2014, 15 countries had a nominal GDP of more than a trillion dollars. Russia’s was 2.06 trillion US dollars, that of the US 8.5 times larger and that of China five times. But in 2024, Shelin says, the IMF projects there will be 17 countries in this category and Russia will have fallen further behind (rosbalt.ru/blogs/2019/12/31/1821016.html).

            Russia’s GDP in that year is projected to be 1.94 trillion. The US GDP will be 13 times larger, and China’s 11 times.  Not a pretty picture, and so Moscow prefers to use the purchasing power parity ratings – but even there, the situation for Russia over this decade is anything but bright.

            In 2014, there were 12 countries with a GDP measured in this way with economies larger than two trillion US dollars.  Russia’s amounted to 3.9 trillion US dollars. That amounted to 5.5 percent of all these economies and meant that the US economy was 4.5 time that of the Russian and the Chinese 4.7 time.

            The situation in 2024 is projected to be much worse as far as Russia is concerned. Then, the number of countries with two trillion plus GDPs will be 18. Russia’s will be 5.29 trillion US dollars; but it will form only 3.8 percent of the economies of this group. Moreover, China’s economy will be 7.5 times larger, the US 4.9 times, and India’s 3.4 times.

            This reflects the fact, Shelin says, that the Russian economy is growing far more slowly than most of the others. Only three in this group – Brazil, Japan and Italy – are growing more slowly. One way to grasp what this means: in 2014, Russia’s economy stood at 97.4 percent of Portugal’s. In 2024, it will be “90 percent if not less.”

            That is unfortunate, of course, “but much more serious is the situation with regard to those enormous countries about whose residents it has been customary to assume that they will always be poorer than [Russians],” the Rosbalt commentator continues.  They are rapidly catching up and soon will be in a position to surpass Russia.

            The number of countries with 100 million residents or more is slated to increase from 12 to 15. In all of them except Russia, the number of residents will rise.  Most of these will remain very poor, but several of them, like Egypt, are closing the per capita gap with Russia over this decade.

            The situation in “the former younger brothers” of Russia, “the former union republics and countries of the socialist camp,” is also moving against Russia.  Between 2014 and 2014, only one – Belarus – will see its GDP in parity prices fall relative to Russia. In the others, it will increase and in some cases dramatically.

            These countries fall into four groups. In the first, which includes Ukraine, Georgia, Mongolia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, per capita GDPs will remain fall behind Russia’s but less far behind than now.  In the second, including Kazakhstan, Romania, and Bulgaria, they will surpass Russia’s.

            In the third, including Latvia, Hungary and Poland, they will significantly surpass Russia’s from being just behind in 2014. And in the fourth, including Estonia, Lithuania and the Czech Republic, they will go from being higher than Russia’s in 2014 to much higher in 2024.  In sum, no matter how one looks at the data, Russia is falling behind.