Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 21 – The Putin
regime appears to believe that its current problems are the result of the
combination of falling oil prices, the pandemic, and the global recession; but
in fact, that trifecta did not create the problems of “the Putin model.” It
only exacerbated them and highlights the need for fundamental change, Maksim
Kalashnikov says.
Putin has postponed the May 9
Victory Parade, the Moscow commentator writes in the influential Voyenno-Promyshleny
Kuryer; but he hasn’t been able to do anything about “another parade, that
of government disorganization,” confusion and collapse not only in the economy
but across the board (vpk-news.ru/articles/56589).
The Kremlin has
comforted itself with the notion that the three developments originating abroad
are the source of its problems and failed to recognize that the problems have
arisen because of “the Putin model” which is based on a failure to re-industrialize
the country, reliance exclusively on the export of raw materials, and the
importation of high technology.
This
model is failing before our eyes, Kalashnikov says, even though the
epidemiological situation in Russia is “much better than in the US. The
collapse is coming in the model’s weakest link, the economy,” and the strategy Moscow
has adopted to cope with the pandemic, one copied with delays from the West,
will only accelerate this process.
The cheap
credit the regime is finally extending to businesses should have been extended
to the economy as a whole long ago, with the proviso that the money go to
creating new jobs at home rather than being used to purchase goods abroad. And
that should have been strengthened by a tough protectionist tariff policy.
Instead,
the regime has been raising taxes on business and the population, “condemning
them to stagnation and poverty,” Kalashnikov continues. “The virus has only
accelerated the process of economy’s catastrophe which was generated not by it
but the existing [Putin] model. The very same thing can be said about ‘the
optimization’ of health care and much else.”
The
Russian government hasn’t thought how it will restore consumer demand and it
isn’t giving businesses enough to ensure that jobs will survive. That is, it
has followed the West but tried to do it on the cheap, guaranteeing that the
Russian approach will fail and Russia will fall further behind.
What is
happening in the economy and elsewhere reflects the shortcomings of a Russian
elite that got used to living with high oil prices. As a result, its members
aren’t prepared to face reality and to make sensible decisions. Instead, they
take actions that are counterproductive like the introduction of passes with
the police keeping people together to check them.
There is
no question that “the current coronavirus shock is unprecedented in modern
history. It is posing a severe test and not only for the Russian Federation. Usually
it is compared with a war” or the depression. But the differences are significant:
then, people were out of work ,but they weren’t confined to their homes. They
still must eat but aren’t producing anything.
The Putin
model doesn’t address any of the problems; it only makes them worse,
Kalashnikov says. “Therefore, this is the choice today: between a conscious
reconstruction of the administration and economy of Russia and a simple
collapse” into a new “time of troubles” for the country.
“Extending
the senseless regime of ‘self-isolation’ (instead of a lawful quarantine and
extraordinary situation) will lead to economic collapse. After that will follow
a political one, fully Gorbachevian in its dimensions and consequences. Only a
decisive shift to a new course, to industrialization and wise protectionism can
save the situation.”
According
to Kalashnikov, “the choice is the Kremlin’s. To live as before is already
impossible, and the new cold war isn’t ending.”
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