Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 6 – In yet another
indication that Moscow tilts toward Chechnya in Grozny’s relations with its neighbors,
the Russian economics ministry has allocated 616 million rubles (9 million US
dollars) over the next three years to create the Aukhov District in Daghestan and
its neighbor the Novolak District. But Makhachkala isn’t prepared to spend the money.
This might seem a small
administrative change, but it involves two things that make it anything but. On
the one hand, Chechens in Daghestan have long sought the restoration of the
Aukhov District which was a Chechen area in Daghestan before the deportations.
And on the other, Moscow is now weighing in to back the Chechen position.
Given that many Daghestanis oppose
restoring the Chechen district because they see it as a prelude to demands by
Grozny for its inclusion in Chechnya, a fear made more plausible given Chechnya’s
absorption with Moscow’s backing of 10 percent of Ingush territory, Makhachkala
has opposed steps in that direction.
Now, a telegram channel is reporting
and the independent Daghestani news portal Chernovik is reposting a story that
the Daghestani government won’t be able to use these funds because of
objections from below to the construction projects these call for. That seems to be a “non-political” way of
objecting to a very “political” move.
While the complicated ethnic mosaic
of Daghestan make it unlikely that the republic would follow an Ingushetia-like
scenario if the region were restored and there were moves toward its being annexed
by Chechnya, there is an even greater and perhaps more immediate danger.
Not only could this lead other
groups in Daghestan to make demands for their own territories or changes in
current borders but it could trigger anti-Moscow attitudes among the
Daghestanis as a whole who have often seen Moscow as a broker among their various
groups rather than a partisan for one.
Either development could lead to
more instability in the North Caucasus and especially along the Caspian
littoral and its north-south rail and road connections between the Russian
Federation and Azerbaijan and Iran.
(For background, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/03/chechens-want-muslims-of-north-caucasus.html,
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/12/ingush-events-prompt-daghestans.html,
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/03/anonymous-internet-messages-urge.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/07/russian-forces-now-keeping-chechens-and.html.)
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