Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 7 – Despite the
flood of bad news about the coronavirus and despite critical articles even by
loyalist Kremlin commentators, the regime’s pollsters at VTsIOM and the Public
Opinion Foundation are reporting that Vladimir Putin’s rating has been rising
through it all, claims that mark the death knell of official sociology, Ivan
Davydov says.
And that is more consequential than
it might appear because in Russia unlike in other countries, the legitimacy of the
ruler is based on his polling numbers rather than on genuine elections. Now,
with the obvious invention of those numbers, “the kingdom of the ratings is
ending,” although its death throws will last some time (newtimes.ru/articles/detail/192880?fcc).
Doubts about sociology and “especially
about those sociological services which work for the powers,” Davydov says, “appeared
in post-Soviet Russia at one and the same time with post-Soviet Russia.” They became especially pronounced during the
1996 elections but quieted after the second Chechen war, the fat years, and
Crimea gave Putin an understandable boost.
But in the last two years, as times
have become tougher and as it has become ever more obvious to ever more
Russians that those in charge aren’t plotting a way forward that benefits the
Russian people, these questions have returned in force, as the Kremlin has
demanded that its ratings improve regardless of what the reality is.
What this has meant is that there is a growing
appreciation of the fact that the ratings the powers that be take so much pride
in “do not have any relationship to reality.”
And while VTsIOM and FOM may continue to issue reports, no one can have
any confidence in them. Sociology in service of the authorities is no more. It
has died.
And because that is so, Putin’s
ratings do not mean much. “The kingdom of ratings is ending, not tomorrow to be
sure, the process will be long, but it is already going on. And pro-power
sociology of the former kind also now is of no use to anyone. Its death is thus
a completely natural one.” And there won’t be any mourners.
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