Paul Goble
Staunton, April 12 – Vladimir Putin might gain a little temporary relief if Aleksey Navalny dies while in prison, Abbas Gallyamov says. But over the longer term, “it will become for the Kremlin leader a serious de-legitimizing factor because people do not respect dishonest victories” however dirty they imagine politics to be (t.me/abbasgallyamovpolitics/54). Someone might say that killing Navalny in this way is “nothing,” the former Putin speechwriter and commentator says; but anyone who does only shows that he doesn’t understand politics. “Here everything depends on timing.” Had Navalny been killed when Putin’s rating was high, it might not have had an effect given his much-ballyooed “Teflon” like cover.
Now, with his rating having collapsed, Putin’s Teflon has dissolved; and as a result, “if several years ago, any doubt would be haven treated in Putin’s favor, now, it ever more often is beginning to be treated against him.” Still worse, Gallyamov says, there is no guarantee that Navalny’s demise would open the sluice gates of criticism still wider.
Everyone needs to keep in mind, the commentator continues, “that in the Russian political space, Navalny has been able to occupy a unique place, the place of the personal enemy of Putin. No one else even pretends to occupy that role. One can defeat such an enemy only by personal action.” And if Navalny dies, Putin will be blamed.
The Kremlin leader will suffer particularly precisely for the reasons that some think he will be able to walk away from this situation without loss: Putin will have done so covertly rather than in open combat. That will not be forgotten, and it will not be forgiven. And for the Kremlin leader, that is not the worst of it.
“In the eyes of the population,” Gallyamov concludes, “such a murder with the assistance of subordinates is what an ordinary mafia figure does. It is not what one would expect from a politician aspiring to occupy a distinguished place in history.”
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