Current Russian Elite Threatened Not Just by Sons but by Grandsons, Pryanikov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – Revolutions typically happen when one part of the elite becomes dissatisfied with the status another part of the elite has given it, Pavel Pryanikov says. Often this leads to a competition between the aging elite in power and their sons, both actually and figuratively, who want power.

            But now because members of the ruling elite are living longer, often into their 80s or even 90s, the number of those potentially dissatisfied has grown exponentially because those not happy with what life has provided them so far include not just the children of the ruling class but by their grandchildren, the Russian commentator says (business-gazeta.ru/article/529096).

            Indeed, in the Russian case, as Vladimir Putin ages and his entourage ages along with him, the number of potential challengers to his rule will continue to grow for reasons that he is not in a position to control: more people will be contesting for the same jobs or the same money, and given that many will fail, they will be looking for ways to push those in power out.

            Putin can fight this by periodic purges, renewing part of his own entourage and punishing those who are most likely to challenge him, Pryanikov says. But he faces an uphill fight, one that whose outcome he may be able to postpone but only with increasing risks to himself and the regime he has put in place.