Putin’s Excessive Expectations from China Put Russia in Peril, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 2 – Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t understand that for Russia, turning to China is not just the exit from his accustomed European world as an entrance into “the world of cold Asian cunning,” a world in which he will find it far more difficult to navigate than he has with the Europeans, Vladimir Pastukhov says.

            The London-base Russian analyst says that for European and more generally Western leaders, “Putin is an unpredictable Asian despot. But for [the Chinese leaders] he is a completely predictable European, one of many white colonizers” who owes China for past Western “humiliations” (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=62483854A684D).

            According to Pastukhov, “the Kremlin dreamers live with the strange hope that Xi, inspired by their example, will go to fight in Taiwat and open a second front with America. In that, they are being naïve optimists: the only Second Front which Xi is ready to open in the coming decade is the First Siberian Front.”

            And that isn’t likely either, he continues: “the Chinese are pragmatists: why fight to conquer which will fall into your hands anyway. You’ll only spoil the goods.”

            Moreover, China’s willingness to support Russia economically is “hardly unqualified. China is not prepared for a frontal clash with the West. It needs time to prepare itself” as it is currently very dependent on world trade.” As long as Russia acts in ways that distract the West, that’s fine. More than that, Pastukhov suggests, won’t be.

            Something similar can be said about the possibility that Moscow might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. The Kremlin should be more worried about how China would respond than how the West might. China is not going to take the risk of being on the outs with the economically advanced world by siding with someone who crosses that red line.

            Betting on China for the long term and despite what Moscow itself is doing is “one of the any utopias” some in the Russian leadership are currently engaging it. The Putin leadership sees that it can “frighten its neighbors with China.” What it doesn’t see is that “relying on China” for more than that is “like grabbing air with your hands.”