Three Small Signs of Big Problems Ahead for Moscow

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 27 – Reports that Russian troops have been stealing underwear in the course of marauder-type activity in Ukraine are no laughing matter despite the way they’ve been presented in the West. Instead, they are a clear sign that logistical arrangements intended to support Putin’s war in Ukraine are collapsing.

This, of course, is only one of the ways in which small things that don’t seem to matter in and of themselves speak volumes.  Connecting the dots is hard, especially in cases where it is all too easy to miss them in the rush of events. But it is important to try because such small things are early warning signs of far larger problems.

            Two other such developments inside Russia appear to fall into this category. The first involves the appearance of shortages of the paper on which the Russian bureaucracy relies. If there isn’t enough paper, what will officials do? And how will ordinary Russians react to the inability of the regime to respond with written decisions? (severreal.org/a/po-desyat-rubley-za-list-v-rossii-ischezaet-ofisnaya-bumaga/31771591.html).

            And the second is even more immediate: Most Russians in cities live in high-rise apartment blocks and depend on elevators. Not only do these elevators have a record of breaking down frequently, but as a result of sanctions, that problem is intensifying. More elevators are “under repair,” and people can’t get to and from their residences.

            That is certain to be a source of irritation or worse among Russians because it hits them where they live; and they are likely to press the Kremlin to provide more support for domestic producers of such parts, something Vladimir Putin up to now has shown little sign of being willing to do (svpressa.ru/economy/article/329456/).

            And those who have to walk up many floors to reach their apartments are likely to ask what kind of government won’t ensure that at least the elevators work. If they do, the real fight ahead may not be between guns and butter as it is usually understood but between guns and elevators.