Paul Goble
Staunton, April 2 – There are two parties within the Russian elite, the military-political and the economic, Kirill Shulika says. For the moment at least, they are more “monolithic” than they were even in 2014; but that is because they perform two different tasks rather than compete with each other.
Nonetheless, the Moscow publicist says, the differences between them do have political consequences even if they are outwardly united behind Putin. While the Kremlin views the economic party as simply its executor, Putin’s ability to act as he likes depends on whether the economic block can continue to pay the bills (rosbalt.ru/posts/2022/04/03/1951656.html).
If the economic party can find enough money to pay people through the end of the year, Putin will be free to continue his aggression and drag out peace talks, Shulika argues. But if the money runs short, then the Kremlin whatever it thinks now, “will move quickly” toward some kind of settlement to remove “at least some of the sanctions.”
Indeed, the publicist says, “sanctions are going to be on the table” of any talks between Russia and Ukraine, again whatever Moscow says. It is not that the economic party is for peace. Rather it is for ensuring that it can deliver on its responsibilities, a critical difference that explains why sanctions may lead to a change in policy even if they don’t change attitudes.
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