As Local Conflicts Multiply, Danger of a Major War Increases, Gorevoy Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 17 – Military conflicts and the threats of them are literally increasing every day, Ruslan Gorevoy says, with major powers, including Russia, drawn into them both because of their direct interests and because of the impact of the enormous refugee flows such clashes are already producing or may soon produce.

            In addition to Ukraine, the Versiya commentator says, such conflicts are occurring or at least are on the horizon in the Taiwan straits, Qarabagh in the South Caucasus, Serbia and Kosovo, and Karakalpakstan in Central Asia, any one of which could soon explode (versia.ru/mnozhestvo-lokalnyx-konfliktov-grozyat-pererasti-v-odnu-bolshuyu-vojnu).

            Some of these involve major powers directly, others will force major powers to get involved because of their clients, and still others will do so because of the refugee flows, unprecedented in size, they will produce, Gorevoy says. In the case of Ukraine, for example, more than ten million of its residents have already moved abroad because of the fighting.

            Three aspects of his argument make it noteworthy. First, more than most analysts, he suggests that conflicts are additive, that conflicts in one place make conflicts in others more rather than less likely, and that as a result, what appear to be clashes at the margins can become the cause of a major war.

            Second, Gorevoy says that in many cases, these wars are being provoked by one side to draw in others, something that together with his argument makes the current situation even more dangerous. And third, far more than most, he argues refugee flows are going to become a casus belli not only in Europe but in the Far East with millions moving in the case of a Taiwan conflict.