Putin’s War in Ukraine by Itself will Push Number of Births in Russia Down by Five Percent Next Year, Raksha Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 2 – The mobilization of young Russian men and the emigration of others seeking to escape service in Ukraine by removing a million plus men in the prime child-breeding age groups will by itself push down the number of births next year by five percent, Moscow demographer Aleksey Raksha says.

            That decline is in addition to the five percent fall because of low incomes, three percent down because of the mishandling of the maternal capital program, and three percent because of declines in the cohort of women of prime child-bearing age groups, he continues (newizv.ru/interview/31-10-2022/demograf-aleksey-raksha-chislo-rodivshihsya-cherez-1-5-goda-umenshitsya-na-12-15).

            Taken together, these factors will push down the number of births by “at least 12 to 15 percent, an enormous decline.” And this decline will have consequences long into the future because the lower number of births will mean that in 20 years, the number of men and women in age groups which normally give birth will be smaller and there will be fewer births then.

            In other comments, Raksha says that this decline will accelerate the emptying out of predominantly ethnic Russian regions beyond the ring road. Some non-Russian areas, like Tyva, where the birthrate is still high, may be able to compensate, but “regions with a predominantly ethnic Russian population cannot.”