Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 4 – A newly adopted law not only sets new restrictions on the passage of non-Russian ships through the Northern Sea Route but makes it possible for Moscow to ban the transit of foreign naval and other non-Russian government vessels at will. The law is based on Moscow’s claim that much of the route passes through Russia’s domestic waters.
That sets the stage for two conflicts, one with foreign states which want to use the Northern Sea Route but now may fear being blocked arbitrarily, and a second with the UN body currently considering Moscow’s expansive claims of an economic exclusion zone in the Arctic (tass.ru/ekonomika/16462331).
The former is already attracting attention because various governments, including the American, have said that they believe that there should be free passage for all along the Northern Sea Route although up to now they have not taken steps that directly challenge Moscow’s pretensions (thebarentsobserver.com/ru/arktika/2022/12/rossiyskiy-parlament-prinyal-zakon-ogranichivayushchiy-svobodu-sudohodstva-po).
But the latter may prove more serious because now many countries that are represented at the United Nations’ Law of the Sea panel hearing Russia’s request for recognition of its territorial claims in the Arctic may be far less willing to be deferential to Moscow than they were before Russia took this step. (cf. https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/08/moscow-plans-new-push-for-un.html.)
If that should prove to be the case, the Kremlin may once again have shot itself in the foot, striking a pose that may sound tough but that ends by harming Russian national interests or at least Russian claims.
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