Departure of Even a Single Federal Subject Now Could Trigger Complete Disintegration of Russian Federation, Ginzburg Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 5 – Russians must understand that with the weakening of Moscow, the departure of even a single federal subject, even a small one, could trigger the disintegration of the entire country, just as the departure of the three Baltic countries led to the demise of the entire USSR a few months later, according to Vitaly Ginzburg.

            In 1991, “no one was prepared” for that possibility, either in Moscow or in the West, and so what happened happened, the Russian commentator says. But now no one has an excuse and should be planning for such a repetition of those events so that it will benefit the most people and entail the least cost (http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=63B6BA3CD25 7C).

            And this means, Ginzburg continues, strategies must be adopted so that “the disintegration of Russia will become a means of RATIONALIZATION and not MARGINALIZATION,” something possible only if it is recognized that “after the weakening of the center,” it will be the republics and regions and their elites that will matter.

            Russia is unlikely to fall apart for the usual reasons such as a revolution, a military coup, or a split in the elite; but it very much may if the center gradually loses control and the leaders of regions and republics decide to exploit the situation. If even one or a small number leave as happened in August 1991, then the others will follow and Russia will disintegrate.

            Once Russians recognize that such an outcome is not only likely but almost inevitable, they can take steps to ensure that the situation does not spiral out of control into chaos and the kind of violence that could threaten not only everyone within the current borders of the country but many others besides.

            Ginzburg suggests four steps that Russians need to take: first, they must recognize that the past and present colonization of national republics and regions is Russia’s primary problem; second, they must acknowledge that the main struggle in the future will be between national and regional elites; third, they must work to eliminate the possibility that these elites will use force; and fourth, they must understand that those regional and republic elites who are in power by election will be far more successful than those appointed from the outside.

            Even if Russians recognize and act on these principles, they may not be able to prevent the disintegration of Russia, Ginzburg concludes. But they may be able to ensure that the process will work to their benefit rather than against their interests – and that is no small thing. In any case, those who are forewarned are forearmed.