Paul Goble
Staunton, Jan. 2 – The Ura news agency surveyed Russian political analysts on their views of the challenges ahead for Russia in 2026. Most of the eight they gave were either outgrowths of current problems like increased tension with the West and loss of allies or scheduled events like the upcoming parliamentary elections.
But Sergey Stankevich, a former advisor to Boris Yeltsin and onetime member of the Duma, points to one that few have considered up to now. He is among those who say that “provocateurs may use returning veterans” of Putin’s war in Ukraine “for their own criminal purposes” (ura.news/articles/1053053109).
Stankevich says “it is crucial to prevent various agitators and provocateurs from using political slogans to push people who have taken Part in the special military operation towards starting a war on the internal front and establishing ‘justice’ by force of arms,” something some of them might be led to try because of their experience with and possession of weapons.
Other Russian analysts with whom Ura spoke say that this threat helps to explain the growing level of anxiety in Russian society and they argue that local and regional officials will have to play a key role to prevent this from happening, especially as in the post-war environment, “increased activity by local protest groups” can be expected.
Many Russian commentators have warned about the danger of an increase in crime when the veterans come back, but until now, most have shied away from any suggestions that this could lead to an internal military conflict within the borders of the Russian Federation. For anyone to say that reflects elite concerns and takes the issue to a new level.
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