Kalashnikov Says Putin will Soon Be Gone and Russia will Face Collapse But Only for a Time

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 2 – Maksim Kalashnikov, a Z blogger who has frequently criticized Putin for failing to be more aggressive in Ukraine, says that “Putin’s tenure” as Russian leader is “drawing to a close” because of his failure to win the war in Ukraine decisively and that in the wake of his departure, Russia will enter “a period of chaos and instability.”

            Indeed, the Putin critic from the right argues that after Putin goes, Russian elites will “install a weak puppet leader to try to mend relations with the West and secure the lifting of sanctions” (dialog.ua/russia/z-bloger-kalashnikov-prizval-rossiyan-gotovitsya-k-tomu-chto-putina.html).

            "I foresee an inevitable inter-clan struggle for the redistribution of spheres of influence, assets, and financial flows," he says; and as that takes place, “the security services will be weakened, fragmented, and demoralized by the outcome of the so-called "Special Military Operation."

            Kalashnikov argues that returning veterans will face “a destitute and unsettled life” and sill thus contribute to further economic decline, a rise in crime, the growth of inter-ethnic clashes, and the radicalization of Russian society. And all this, he concludes that “the disintegration of the Russian Federation can’t be excluded, at least for a couple of years.”

            While Kalashnikov’s predictions are likely overstated, they are noteworthy for three reasons. First, his fears of what a Russian loss in Ukraine will mean for Putin and his country are likely widespread among Russian elites and will likely dictate that the Kremlin to the extent it can work to avoid that outcome.

            Second, his suggestion that returning veterans will exacerbate problems in Russian life goes far beyond the usual suggestions that they will increase crime. Such a broader impact will be far more difficult for Putin or his successors to cope with given that repression alone is unlikely to work.

            And third – and this is by far the most important – Kalashnikov’s suggestion that Russia will face a high risk of disintegration but only for a few years in the future means that in his view, Russia may disintegrate for a time but will with any luck be able to reassemble itself, as the Bolsheviks did after 1917.