Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 1 – In the 1990s,
many Russians fled from cities and regions where industrial production had
collapsed into the megalopolises in the search for work adding to the problems
of those cities. That trend had slowed slightly in the first decade of this
century, but it has now resumed with a vengeance and threatens to intensify
even further in the coming months.
According to a report in today’s “Nezavisimaya
gazeta,” “up to 20 million Russians” are now looking for work, with many
prepared to move in order to get it. The paper’s Anatoly Komrakov cites the findings
of W-City Community Research that those moving from one region to another could
rise 50 percent this year over last (ng.ru/economics/2016-08-01/4_job.html).
Russia’s labor ministry says that
only 954,800 Russians are now out of work, putting the share of unemployed at
1.2 percent. At the same time, the ministry says that there are now 1,400,000
positions being advertised to be fulfilled. Those numbers suggest that there
are fewer unemployed than jobs available, although there are regional and
skills imbalances.
But using the methodology of the
International Labor Organization, Rosstat says that as of June 4.2 million
Russians were “actively seeking work,” a number which constitutes 5.4 percent
of the working age population.
There are enormous differences in
the level of unemployment across the country, Komrakov says. In Moscow and St.
Petersburg, the figures are 1.8 and 1.6 percent respectively, but in Chechnya,
the figure is 16.4 percent, in Tuva 19.1 percent, and in Ingushetia, 30.9
percent (For figures in other regions, see the ranking at yug.svpressa.ru/economy/article/138253/.)
These various official numbers are
at variance with the assessments by independent research centers. W-City Community Research says that “at a
minimum,” one Russian in four is now looking for work – some 20 million
people. And it points out that there
were 20 percent more applicants for vacancies in June 2016 than a year earlier.
According to Timofey Surovtsev of
W-City.net, “the number of domestic labor migrants has been growing sharply”
this year. In 2015, he says, approximately 5.5 million Russians were seeking
work beyond the borders of their home region. This year, he suggests, that
figure is accelerating and may grow by 50 percent this year – to one in every 18
Russians.
According to Rosstat, every other
Russian working outside his home region is in Moscow. Surovtsev says that as of
June they number “about 250,000.” Other
experts put the figure even higher. This all means, Komrakov says, that Moscow
has been transformed “from a magnet for domestic labor migrants into a
super-magnet.”
After the two capitals, the two most
popular destinations for those seeking work are Crimea and Krasnodar kray,
according to the Center for the Study of Pension Reforms. It noted that 20
percent of those it had surveyed recently said they were ready to move to
Crimea or Krasnodar kray in order to get work.
Ivan Kuznetsov of Superjob.ru points
out that in comparison with many other countries, domestic labor mobility in
Russia remains relatively low because “very few people … are prepared to go to
other cities for work,” even if there are real advantages to doing so.
Natalya Zubarevich of the
Independent Institute for Social Policy lists as magnets for internal labor
migrants Moscow, St. Petersburg and then the petroleum-producing regions of the
north. But she says that the level of
regional mobility is much higher than many think. “There are cities,” she says,
“where up to a third of the population works in other regions.”
The flow of domestic labor migrants
has consequences both for the regions to which they go and for the regions from
which they come. In the first, they increase pressure on the social
infrastructure of the cities and regions; in the second, they highlight the
center’s neglect of their own industries.
Under the right circumstances, both these things can have a political
impact.
