Kremlin Ready to Oust Yevkurov as Soon as That Won’t Look Like Concession to Ingush Protesters, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 2 – Now that protests in Ingushetia have resumed, the Kremlin has lost confidence in republic head Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and will move to remove him as soon as that action can be taken without it appearing to be in response to the demonstrations against him, three experts with whom Kavkaz-Uzel spoke (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333726/).

            Nikolay Petrov of the Higher School of Economics says that Yevkurov’s departure is “completely possible” because the Kremlin has concluded that he not only can’t calm the situation but in fact by his actions is making it worse. Yevgeny Minchenko of Minchenko Consulting agrees: Yevkurov’s credit with the center is rapidly running out.

            And Moscow political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin says that Yevkurov might already have been dismissed save for one thing: “Vladimir Putin will not allow anyone to think that the people organized a protest, demanded the retirement of the head, and achieved that. But [Yevkurov’s] removal is possible in the foreseeable future.”

            Meanwhile, Yevkurov and Moscow continue to strengthen their police and military positions. Analysts say the Russian Guard units there are practicing riot suppression in expectation that there will be more protests (capost.media/news/policy/v-ingushetii-zasnyali-rosgvardeytsev-otrabatyvayushchikh-deystviya-pri-razgone-mitinga/).

            And residents have been posting online pictures of what they say are Russian military armored units entering the republic, although these reports are unconfirmed and the dates of the pictures have not been independently established (censoru.net/34528-rossijskie-vojska-vtorglis-v-ingushetiju-ohvachennuju-protestami-protiv-vopijuschego-bespredela-putina-kadyrova.html).

            Interrogations, arrests, charges and fines are being handed out wholesale to those who participated in the latest protests with many being accused of having attacked the police (fortanga.org/2019/04/uchastnikov-protesta-u-ekazhevskogo-kruga-nakazali-shtrafami-i-arestami/, graniru.org/Society/Law/m.275795.html,   sobkorr.org/news/5CA32CC4975D1.html  and kavkazr.com/a/29856749.html).

            One especially serious warning was issued by Irina Starodubrovskaya, a specialist on the North Caucasus at the Moscow Institute of Economic Policy. She says that the controls elders have over young people have broken down more in Ingushetia than elsewhere and that the young are now so radical that they might do anything (svpressa.ru/accidents/article/229157/).

            Meanwhile, other developments and comments in the last 24 hours in and about Ingushetia which appear especially important include:

·         Unknown vandals attacked the residence of the Ingush imam who is an opponent of Yevkurov and a supporter of the opposition (capost.media/news/society/vandaly-nazvali-ingushskogo-imama-akhmeda-posheva-korruptsionerom/).

·         Russian sappers continued demining operations along the Chechen-Ingush border, a development that could create problems by making it easier for people to move in both directions (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333698/).

·         Opposition figures came out in support of Dmitry Kava, the former interior minister of Ingushetia who was forced to retire after the latest protests.  Opposition leaders said that Kava, although not an Ingush, respected Ingush traditions and that that was why he landed in such difficulty with Yevkurov (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/333734/).

·         Sofya Budnikova, the representative of the Nation and Freedom Committee, urged the Ingush demonstrators to stay in the streets until they achieved victory. Their withdrawal at any point would give the authorities a victory they do not deserve (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5CA3124F02E89).

·         And Vadim Shtepa, editor of the Region.Expert portal, said that it is important to recognize that “the citizens of Ingushetia are acting not from nationalistic but from regionalist positions. They are ‘not against Chechens’ and not ‘against Russians.’ They are against reducing the size of their republic … Those who think exclusively in nationalistic stereotypes do not understand the situation in Ingushetia” (facebook.com/vadim.shtepa/posts/2327608757290101).