Russia’s Closed Cities Less Supportive of Putin than were Surrounding Regions, ‘Znak’ Analysis Finds

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – One striking phenomenon of the July 1 vote is that those in Russia’s closed cities who took part in the referendum in virtually every case voted significantly less for Putin’s desired outcome than did the population of the areas surrounding them, according to an analysis by Znak journalist Olga Balyuk.

            This pattern appears to reflect three things: unhappiness in these critical defense centers with Kremlin policies, the risks of using force against them, and the fact that the largely middle-aged professionals in them are not Putin’s basic electorate, the journalist says (znak.com/2020-07-07/zakrytye_goroda_minoborony_massovo_pokazali_protestnyy_rezultat_na_oprose_po_konstitucii).

            She examined voting patterns in 23 of these cities controlled by the defense ministry as compared to their surrounding areas and provides the statistics in her article to support these conclusions. And she interviewed Moscow political analyst Aleksandr Kynyev about the meaning of her findings.

            He said that in his view, this pattern reflected the fact that the regime can force people to go to the polls but has ever less control over how they will vote. Those who are angry won’t vote for the regime, and others who may not be will be if they are forced to take part in something they want to avoid.

            What that means, Kynyev says, is that compelling people to vote, something that was widespread in Russia as a whole and especially widespread in the closed cities where by definition there weren’t outside observers to object, is “a dangerous technology” for the powers that be who would be far better off with lower participation and more ballot box stuffing.

            The political analyst added that in the closed cities, there are relatively few members of Putin’s base, women over 40, often without husbands, who watch television and take their opinions from it.  Because they aren’t numerous in closed cities, the regime could not count on their votes.

            Kynyev says that the regime in Moscow is unlikely to respond to the no votes in the closed cities in particular, but that this pattern, one found elsewhere as well, may lead the Kremlin to conclude that forcing people to vote as it did in advance of the July 1 action is counterproductive. It would be better in the future to allow its opponents to stay home.