Paul Goble
Staunton,
Oct. 17 – The Russian population is set to decline by more than a million
people each year, the result of excess deaths over births and the failure of immigration
to make up the shortfall. The impact of this decline is perhaps greatest in
Siberia and the Far East, but it is hitting the predominantly ethnic Russian
regions around Moscow.
They
are seeing their population decline rapidly with ever more people choosing to
work in the capital and ultimately move there, and that in turn has sparked
discussions within the government about amalgamating some or all of them into a
single Moscow-centered “conurbation,” the Nezygar telegram channel says
(t.me/russica2/41800).
The
Russian oblast most likely to be absorbed into this new structure, the channel
says, are Kaluga, Tula, Yaroslavl, Ryazan, Vladimir and Smolensk, whose
combined population is approximately five million people but whose working age
adults increasingly are part of the capital’s economy.
The
possibility that they might be absorbed by Moscow has generated a debate among
independent experts. Sergey Skripnikov of the Higher School of Economics says
that in his view there is no reason to unite them administratively even though
economically they are already forming a single unit (akcent.site/mneniya/16987).
But
Konstantin Kalachev, head of the Political Experts Group, says that
depopulation of these oblasts represents a serious threat, one that the center
does not have any obvious answer for. As a result, the Russian capital could be
surrounded by a depopulated region, something that would isolate it even more
than it is at present.
Given
that the differences in population between Moscow and these regions are only
going to increase, it is likely that ever more officials will see regional
amalgamation of these predominantly ethnic Russian regions as an entirely
natural and reasonable step, however much it will further imbalance what is
left of federal arrangements in the country.
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