Staunton, April 6 – Prior to Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, Western analysts were convinced that the Russian military would make short work of Ukraine but then would face the difficulties of dealing with “a big partisan war,” Aleksandr Nemets says. But it has turned out that the Ukrainians are a warrior nation capable of defending themselves.
That new reality has created a new world in Ukraine where the people have united around and with the army, in Russia where it has raised new questions about the Putin regime and its future, and in the West where along with the Ukrainians, many are doubtful about the future of the institutions the world has relied on up to now, the US-based Russian analyst says.
“The Old World has been blown up in Ukraine,” Nemets says. “And now it remains only to create a New One. This world is already being created and its first element has become the Army of Ukraine” and around that force “a New Ukraine” which along with the rest of the world will not go back to what it was (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=624F490C59DA5).
At the same time, “many honored institutions of the Old World are disappearing,” he continues. The UN has shown itself an impotent talk shop. The supposedly powerful OSCE has proved powerless. And even NATO in which so many had placed their hopes has collapsed as a collective institution, with its individual members now taking the lead.
Viktor Litovchenko, a commentator for BATA TV, several days ago dismissed not only the UN and the OSCE but even NATO. “It was supposed,” he says, “that NATO would come to the defense of Ukraine. But now, it turns out that on the contrary, Ukraine is defending the countries of NATO from Russia.” Other commentators are saying much the same.
And even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken observed yesterday that “the period of warming in international relations which came after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union has come to an end. We again find ourselves in the whirlwind of history,” a whirlwind that will sweep much away.
“The war in Ukraine has become a miracle like the Six Day War in June 1967 and the Doomsday War of October 1973,” Nemets continues. Russia’s military then and now has turned out to be far less powerful and effective than many had thought, and it finally came up against a warrior people and has begun to suffer real defeats.
Also transformed by Ukrainian heroism and by the evidence of crimes against humanity by Russian invaders has been the West. It is now providing more heavy weapons to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces will be putting them to good use against a still dangerous Russian opponent but one which has been seriously wounded.
If as seems likely Russia does suffer a serious military defeat in Ukraine, Moscow will lose more than it seized in 2014. It will be confronted by the collapse of the Putin regime and the collapse of the Russian Federation itself, events that will also open a new era in world affairs, especially if the West doesn’t fall victim to the triumphalism which undermined it earlier victory.