Moscow Seeks New Northern Sea Route Partners as China Signals It May Play a Smaller Role

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 27 – For the last several years, Moscow has relied on China as its most important partner for the development of the Northern Sea Route despite Russiaqn fears that Beijing planned to push it aside eventually (jamestown.org/program/china-helping-russia-on-northern-sea-route-now-but-ready-to-push-moscow-aside-later/).  
    But now that China has signaled that it will likely play a smaller role on the NSR than it had planned because of changes in the international environment since US President Donald Trump came to office, Beijing has signaled that it is likely to reduce its role in the Arctic in the coming years (scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3302384/warming-us-russia-ties-could-put-chinas-arctic-ambitions-ice-experts-warn).
    Because Beijing has not made an official declaration on this point, some Russian analysts are skeptical about whether China will cut its role in the Arctic by as much as some fear (nakanune.ru/articles/123303/, svpressa.ru/politic/article/455667/ and apn-spb.ru/opinions/article39021.htm).
    But Russian officials, alarmed about what a Chinese exit might mean given Russia’s need for outside investment to develop this route, are already talking to other countries in Asia and the Middle East including Vietnam, India and Turkey about partnering with Russia there (fedpress.ru/news/77/economy/3371157).
    A major Chinese pullback and a significant increase in the role of such countries would dramatically change the geo-economics and geo-politics of the NSR and the Arctic more generally over the next decade and likely lead to the expansion of Russian influence in countries where, since the beginning of Putin’s expanded war in Ukraine, it had been on the wane.