Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 1 – Ramazan Abdulatipov’s
plan to create four districts overlaying the complex administrative map of
Daghestan in order to improve central oversight and the implementation of
Makhachkala’s policies appears likely to threaten the delicate ethnic balance
in that North Caucasus republic.
That is because the ethnic mix of
each of the new entities is very different than the ethnic mix of the republic
as a whole, with some groups gaining relative influence, others losing such
influence, and still others, including ethnic Russians, being frozen out
completely in some of the districts.
Indeed, the variations in the ethnic
mix among the four districts that some groups are likely to conclude that they
are on their way to the creation of their own ethnic territory, one that could
ultimately seek separation from Daghestan, and others equally likely to
conclude that they are being put in a weakened position and decide to take
steps to defend themselves.
According to the 2010 census, the
republic’s 2.9 million people consisted of a large number of different
nationalities. The largest were the
Avars (29.4 percent), the Dargins (17.0 percent), the Kumyks (14.9 percent),
the Lezgins (13.3 percent), the Laks (5.6 percent), the Azerbaijanis (4.5
percent), the Russians (3.6 percent), and the Chechens (3.2 percent).
That diversity not only allowed
Moscow to play divide and rule politics but required the center to allocate
certain positions to certain groups lest smaller groups feel frozen out of
power altogether by the larger ones. Indeed, whenever these quotas have been
violated over the last three decades, ethnic tensions have gone up and clashes
taken place.
Because the various groups live in
different parts of Daghestan, the ethnic composition of each of the four
districts is different than that of the republic as a whole. In the Central District, the Avars form 23.7
percent of the population, the Dargins 16.5 percent, and the Kumyks 17.8.
Others trail far behind, with the Russians forming 3.0 percent.
In the Northern District, the Avars
form 37.7 percent of the population, the Chechens 16.6 percent, the Kumyks 16.4,
and the Dargins 7.9. Ethnic Russians
form 6.1 percent of the total, with others trailing. In the Mountain District, the Avars form 64.6
percent of the total and the Dargins 21.6, with others much smaller.
And in the Southern District, the
Lezgins form 40.1 percent of the total, the Tabasarans 19.2 percent , the
Azerbaijanis 14.9 percent, and the Dargins 14 percent. These figures were prepared
by Mikhail Chernyshov and were posted online yesterday at pcnariman.livejournal.com/501653.html).
This pattern means that the Avars
will dominate or expect to dominate the Mountain District and the Lezgins the
Southern. In the other two, there will be intense competition between the Avars,
on the one hand, and the Dargins and Kumyks, on the other, with the latter
groups possibly feeling threatened.
Moreover, because the borders could
have been drawn in other ways that would have made the ethnic hierarchy different,
both winners and losers are likely to view these divisions as a plan to reward
and punish and to react accordingly much as Stavropol has reacted against its
inclusion in Moscow’s North Caucasus Federal District.
Indeed, there is already speculation
about “the hand of Moscow” versus “the hand of Abdulatipov” behind the lines
that have been drawn (chernovik.net/content/politika/dagestan-v-rukah). And that will only intensify, with particular
attention to the Lezgins because of their co-ethnics in Azerbaijan and the
Kumyks whose national movement has recently taken off.
At
the very least, Abdulatipov’s proposal will re-order politics in Daghestan. At
the worst, it will threaten the most ethnically diverse and conflict-ridden republic
in the Russian Federation with more violence and open the possibility of its
disintegration or at least attempts in that direction.
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