Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 19 – Vladimir Putin’s
push to transform Ukraine into a genuinely federal state and his invocation of
the state of ethnic Russians as the reason for his intervention in Ukraine is
having an impact at home, leading some to ask why federalism should be only “an
export good” and others to demand that Moscow protect ethnic Russians
domestically.
One Russian regionalist says that
those who support the development of real federalism can only cheer Putin’s
call for the development of such a system in Ukraine because “this ‘export’
variant of state administration is clearly better than the one Moscow offers
its own regions (kornev.livejournal.com/412245.html).
Indeed, Sergey Kornyev argues Putin’s
model for Ukraine, which includes direct voting for regional legislative and
executive bodies, recognition of regional diversity, fiscal federalism, and the
right of regions to develop ties with foreign countries could be a model for
Russia itself (mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/newsline/49766426492B6E9644257C9E0036B79A).
While there is no indication that
Putin plans to promote such federal arrangements in the Russian Federation –
which remains a hyper-centralized state that is federal is name only – the Kremlin
leader’s advocacy of it for ethnic Russians and others in neighboring Ukraine
is likely to encourage regionalist and federalist advocates in Russia itself.
On the one hand, Putin’s proposals
for Ukrainian federalism are implicitly ethnic and intended to protect ethnic
Russians living there, but in the case of the Russian Federation, such
proposals are likely to be invoked as a defense of existing non-Russian
republics or even as the basis for giving these republics more rather than les
authority.
And on the other, Putin’s notions
about regionalism are certain to give aid and comfort to regions like Siberia
or St. Petersburg which see themselves as distinct from Moscow in terms of
interests and identities, even if the center currently refuses to recognize
these distinctions or the ideas of such groups about how the Russian Federation
should be divided.
None of this means that Putin is
about to federalize Russia: that is not his not his goal and he will not be the
first leader to insist on political approaches abroad very different from the
ones that he imposes at home. But like
others, he cannot avoid having his words heard by an audience different than
the one he intends or having them invoked in the name of goals he opposes.
That is even more the case with the
Kremlin leader’s arguments concerning the importance of defending ethnic
Russians in Ukraine, arguments that are already echoing among ethnic Russians
in the Russian Federation which Putin’s claims not withstanding has a
population in which non-Russians are at least a quarter of the population.
Russian nationalists have been
overwhelmingly support of Putin’s intervention in and absorption of Crimea and
his pressure on Ukraine more generally, but some of them have invoked the
Kremlin leader’s Ukrainian policies in ways that he could not possibly approve
of and is likely to work hard to suppress.
On March 4, Roman Romanenko, a Vologda
journalist, called on Putin to introduce forces into that region for the same reasons
as in Crimea, “to free the Russian-language population living in the region
from occupiers who have seized power with the help of dishonest elections” (facebook.com/roman.romanenko.39/posts/465388900256627?stream_ref=10).
Arguing that the rights of ethnic
Russians were being trampled upon there, Romanenko said that those among them
who are ill “cannot get the necessary medicines and treatment, the level of education
is falling with each passing year, and kindergartens and crèches are being
closed. Agriculture is practically destroyed and we are all suffering a great
deal.”
A day later, a group of ethnic
Russians in Tver oblast also called on Putin to introduce forces in their
oblast arguing that the situation of Russian speakers in that overwhelmingly
ethnic Russian region is “much worse than in Crimea” and requires radical
measures to be taken if the Russians are to be saved (nazaccent.ru/content/10966-krymskoe-eho.html).
In part, of course, these appeals
may have been little more than a kind of protest against Putin’s policies in
Ukraine by highlighting how absurd they are if taken to their logical
conclusion, but in an indication that they may be more than that, Russian
officials are taking no chances and are cracking down hard on those putting
them out (nazaccent.ru/content/11001-prokuratura-zainteresovalas-prosboj-zashitit-russkoe-naselenie.html).
One reason for
such official concern is that leading Russian nationalists are making the same
point more generally. Konstantin Krylov,
for example, says that if one follows Putin’s logic on Crimea, “the
introduction of Russian forces into Russia would be much more justified”
because “the Russian movement is being suppressed and de-Russification is
taking place” (krylov.livejournal.com/3226308.html).
In addition,
Russian nationalists like Dmitry Demushkin are invoking Putin’s policies in
Ukraine to argue that Moscow must single out ethnic Russians in the Russian
Federation as an object of concern and defense rather than continuing to treat
them as part of some kind of non-ethnic civic Russian people.
Given how multi-national the
population of the Russian Federation is, the dangers of doing so are obvious,
as Academician Valery Tishkov, the director of the Moscow Institute of
Ethnology and Anthropology, has repeatedly pointed out. But that isn’t stopping
the Russian nationalists. Instead, his arguments are enraging them, especially
after Crimea.
Things may soon come to a head at an
official level. The session of the Presidential
Council on Inter-Ethnic Relations scheduled for May of this year is supposed to
focus on ethnic Russian issues, but according to some experts, that meeting may
have a problem even before it opens.
According to Vyacheslav Mikhaylov, a
member of the council and a former nationalities minister, organizers have “not
been able to find a single figure who could speak in the name of the Russian
people,” an indication of just how dangerous and explosive this issue has
become (nazaccent.ru/content/10966-krymskoe-eho.html).
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