Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 6 – Sometimes a
simple statistic can highlight a fundamental change, and that is true of one
from Ukraine. At present, 18 of 20 of the ministers in the Ukrainian government
speak English, up from only two of 20 under Viktor Yanukovich, Vitaly Sych, the
editor of “Novoye vremya” points out.
And that shift reflects broader
changes in the politics and society of that country means, he argues, that “Ukraine
has a historic chance” to transform itself into a European country “if it
survives the war on the Eastern front” Moscow has imposed upon it (nv.ua/opinion/sych/the-moment-of-truth-42442.html
).
Of course, precisely because of what
this change would mean for Europe and Eurasia if it is completed, the Russia of
Vladimir Putin is likely to do anything and everything to make sure that Ukraine
not only cannot complete that change to a better life but that Kyiv is forced
to return to a Russian-centric past.
In a speech to an Aspen Institute
meeting in Berlin, Sych described the events of the past year and a half which
he says have led to a “moment of truth” for Ukraine and for more than Ukraine
as well.
The Ukrainian editor began his remarks by saying that “the lives of many
Ukrainians switched into emergency mode on Dec.1, 2013. That day special police
units beat up students who protested in the Maidan, Kiev’s main square against
ex-President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision not to sign an association agreement
with the EU.
“Ukrainian
television channels aired footage of police brutally beating up young girls and
boys who were peacefully protesting on Maidan,” he continued. “The students
were bleeding and shouting, some of them managed to escape only when they got
inside the nearby churches. The next day a crowd of 100,000 outraged Ukrainians
poured into Kiev’s streets.”
Their “protest
was no longer about European integration—it was about justice and dignity.
People demanded an apology and a punishment for those responsible for beating
the protesters,” he said. But instead of apologizing, “Yanukovych responded
with repressions turning a spontaneous protest into a marathon stand-off.”
Sych
told the meeting that it was obvious to him at the time that “if we allow this
to happen, we will turn into a bad version of Belarus for decades. There would
be no elections in Ukraine, no economic competition, not even personal
freedoms. We wouldn’t even get what I call a ‘freedoms in exchange for food’
pact.”
Yanukovich
then “flooded the city with armed thugs brought from all over Ukraine to
intimidate the protesters. Some of the activists … went missing.” Others were
killed, and still others targeted. “Nobody knew who was going to be next.”
“A few days afterwards what was already called
a Revolution of Dignity,” Sych said, “culminated in an ugly way. Special troops
shot dead about 100 people right in the center of the capital, Yanukovych fled
Kiev. Parliament cancelled the dictatorial laws. The next morning Yanukovych’s
mansion … a symbol of corruption, opened its doors to general public.”
“The
trouble seemed to be over. But it had just began,” Sych continued.
“A
few weeks afterward Russia annexed Crimea and riots began in Eastern Ukraine.
Armed people started capturing government buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk,
some of them Russians, some of them locals. What was happening in Kiev was grim
but was clear. The developments in the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were beyond
my understanding.”
“We
suddenly realized that Russian propaganda, which looked ridiculous from Kiev
was extremely effective in the Russian-speaking areas of Ukraine and Russia
itself. What we thought was a Revolution of Dignity was presented on Russian TV
as an illegal rebellion of neo-Nazis financed and managed by Americans.”
“An
anti-criminal revolution was shown as an aggressive offensive on anything that
is Russian—culture, language, identity. The technique was simple: Russian media
focused on a small radical wing of the revolution—it constituted less than 5%,
the rest were young professionals, students, retirees—and blew it out of
proportion mixing it with fakes and lies.”
“You
would think such a primitive technology wouldn’t work in the 21st century when
people have internet,” Sych said. “But it did. No wonder a lot of residents in
Crimea and Russia started treating the Ukrainian revolution and Ukrainians
themselves with suspicion, to say the least.”
“In
a recent poll by the Moscow-based Levada Center polling agency, Russians
included what they previously referred to as brotherly Ukraine into the top
three most hostile nations to Russia, along with the US and Latvia. Ukrainians
replaced Georgia and Estonia in this honorary title.”
“Ukrainians’
attitude towards Russians has also deteriorated … The number of Ukrainians willing to live in
the same state with Russians fell to a record low of 5% by October last year,
even in the East of the country the figure halved from 26% to 13% over just
five months.”
“Relations have
deteriorated on the human level as well. My wife’s sister lives in Moscow for
many years,” Sych said. “She is a Russian citizen. We find it difficult to
communicate with her family and decided we should all take a pause. It is
difficult to speak with people who are convinced black is white and vice versa.”
“Generally,
most Ukrainians have been on a major emotional and financial stretch over the
last year,” he added. On the one hand, “many have either participated in the
war … or lost a relative or a friend.” On the other, “all have seen their
income plummet as the exchange rate of the local currency, the hryvna, fell
from 8 to almost 30 to a dollar.”
Today, “Ukraine is now waging two wars: one with pro-Russian
rebels and Russian troops in the East, another—at home trying to reform its
obsolete economy. The government was slow to reform in the first six months
after the revolution. Part of the reason was the war that drew a lot of
resources, part was domestic politics—new parliament needed to be elected that
would replace the caretaker government with the new one.”
But,
Sych continued, everyone has “a strong incentive to reform—a lack of
alternative. If [the country doesn’t], Ukraine’s economy will collapse in a
year or two. [The reforms] will include privatizing loss-making state
companies, cutting red tape and easing the tax burden as well as putting
corrupt people in jail.”
“Ukraine has now a historic chance to transform into a
vast European nation with competitive economy and rule of law -- if it can only
survive on the Eastern front—its people have been in emergency mode for the
last 15 months.”
No comments:
Post a Comment