Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 29 – Russian
security services having gained certain successes over the Caucasus Emirate and
other ISIS allies in the North Caucasus over the last month, Moscow is shifting
its attentions to provincial mosques where the Islamic State not only seeks
recruits but raises funds for its operations.
According to Aleksandr Topalov of
Moscow’s “Vzglyad” newspaper, these mosques constitute “a weak link” in Russian
efforts to defeat ISIS in the Russian Federation; and the journalist suggests
that Russian officials will rely more on the Muslim Spiritual Directorates MSDs)
to impose order on mosques subordinate to them (vz.ru/society/2015/8/25/762525.html).
Russian security services have had
significant success in decapitating the Caucasus Emirate over the last few
months, but with each new victory, new and often hitherto unknown Islamists
appear to take their place. Consequently, the counter-terrorism effort in the
North Caucasus will certainly continue.
But Topalov’s article suggests that
at least some in the Russian capital now appreciate that countering ISIS
requires an additional step: choking off the radical Islamic State’s influence
in mosques by offering an alternative Muslim narrative, something that will
require the mobilization of the MSDs.
These organizations, which have not
canonical status in Islam, trace their roots to the time of Catherine the Great
and have been used by Russian Imperial, Soviet and now Russian Federation
officials as quasi-state, quasi-religious administrative structures to allow
the government to control individual Muslim parishes.
That task has been more complicated
for the Russian Federation than its predecessors because the number of
practicing Muslims and active parishes has skyrocketed and MSDs have
proliferated often without any direct state involvement. Consequently, some of
the MSDs themselves are a source of the problem Moscow is seeking to combat.
The “Vzglyad” journalist says that “the
problem of recruitment into radical trends and Islamist groupings via mosques
and prayer houses is becoming ever more important” especially “if one considers
that ISIS representatives prefer to act from the inside very quietly and in an
inconspicuous way.”
Given the nature of Islam and
especially the level of religious knowledge among Russia’s Muslims, Topalov
says, that means that the real fight is over who is the mullah or imam in any
given mosque because if that individual is a radical that will only increase
the number of cases of “recruitment into band formations.”
Moreover, it is
becoming clear, he suggests, that ISIS now typically divides its subversive
activities “into two fronts, a legal and an illegal one. For many years, Basque
and Irish separatists successfully were guided by these principles; thus, this
approach is not an innovation either for Islamist radicals or representatives
of other extremist trends.”
“It is not infrequently the case,”
the journalist continues, “that ‘the legal wing’ turns out to be even more
successful than the one directly involved in terrorism.” That is because it is the
one that serves as the chief recruiter and fund raiser for such groups. And it often happens that those who are in
the legal field at one point “become leaders of the underground” at another.’
ISIS, it is clear, “is actively
using the semi-legal channel of recruitment via formal religious institutions.” The “only counterweight to this threat,”
Topalov says, is to be found in “the activation of official Islam,” that is,
the MSDs, who can and must supervise “what is taking place in provincial
religious organizations.”
It is unclear how much Topralov’s
article reflects official thinking or what, if it does, such thinking will lead
to. Several outcomes are possible: a new campaign to unify the MSDs, something
some in Moscow and Ufa have long wanted, a related effort to suppress MSDs the
government doesn’t control, and a more general campaign against radical imams
and mullahs.
Whichever course Moscow chooses,
relations between the Russian government and at least portions of Russia’s
burgeoning Muslim population are likely to become more turbulent and possibly
explosive in the coming months.
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