Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 1 – Ukrainians
are fundamentally ignorant of the situation in neighboring Belarus and do not
realize that “if the number of Belarusians supporting Russia’s actions in the
Donbas reaches Russian levels, Ukraine will face yet another 1,000-kilometer-long
front, according to Natalya Radina, the chief editor of Charter 97.
In an interview with Elena
Poskannaya of Ukraine’s Gordon news agency, Radina says that it is “surprising”
that “the Ukrainian media present Belarus as some kind of economic miracle,
leaving the Ukrainians certain that it is a heaven on earth” and no threat to
Ukraine (gordonua.com/publications/Glavred-charter97-u-Ukrainy-mozhet-poyavitsya-eshche-tysyacha-kilomentrov-fronta-108735.html).
“In reality,” she
says, “Ukrainians do not know anything about the life of the neighboring
state,” they do not recognize that the Belarusian economy is unreformed and
survives only on Russian aid, and they do not know that the Belarusian
authorities are guilty of “bestial crimes against humanity, kill leaders of the
opposition, and that there is no freedom of speech or assembly.”
Nor do they recognize that
Belarusians are hostile to Ukraine. “According to polls, 60 percent of
Belarusians support the actions of Russia in the Donbas and in Crimea,”
something extremely dangerous for Ukraine. If Belarusian support reaches
Russian levels, Ukraine will face “another 1,000-kilometer-long front.”
And this will be “a front with
Russia because believe me no one will ask Lukashenka whether Moscow can put
forces on the territory of the republic or not,” Radina says. Belarus is part
of a Union State with Russia, and thus “de facto Belarus is a region of the
Russian Federation,” completely comparable with occupied Crimea.
Lukashenka likes to act as if he is
a brilliant and independent leader but in fact, he and his country are totally
dependent on Russia, and consequently, “to speak about some kind of Belarusian
independence is simply laughable.” Putin will do what he wants and when he
wants to in Belarus.
Ukrainian defense officials
understand this, see Russia preparing for war against Ukraine from Belarus, but
the Ukrainian political leadership is not prepared to take the obvious steps,
build up border defenses, and treat Lukashenka’s regime as a Moscow dependency.
Instead, Kyiv supports him by lobbying for him in the West.
Radina says that the recent decision
by Europe to lift some sanctions on Belarus is in fact intended to allow
European firms to export to Russia bypassing the sanctions regime there by
means of the simple trick of relabeling European goods as being the products of
Belarus, a concession by political elites in Europe to economic ones.
Radina says that elections in
Belarus will not accomplish anything because of the nature of Lukashenka’s
regime and that the opposition must organize underground in order to be able to
move when the time is right, exploiting increasing popular unhappiness with the
deteriorating economic situation.
Lukashenka for the time being is
well-defended: he has seven times more militiamen per 100,000 population than
was the case in Soviet times, not to speak of the various special services at
his command. Nevertheless, she says,
there is hope if the opposition organizes itself in a most secret way.
She devotes the remainder of her
interview to arguing that Ukrainian media must give better coverage to
Belarusian events and demand that Lukashenka fulfill his promise to allow
Ukrainian television to be broadcast in Belarus. She also urges Ukrainians to
press their Western partners to broadcast into Belarus to help its people
change and to protect Ukraine.
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