Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 29 – Following a
two-day visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, relations between
Moscow and Ashgabat appear to be warming, especially now that Turkmenistan
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has invited Vladimir Putin to make an
official visit to his capital.
Faced with threats from neighboring
Afghanistan, Turkmenistan has been casting about for assistance and Russia is
quite prepared to provide it, especially because if Ashgabat shifts away from
its policy of strict neutrality, that could open the way for discussions of
pipelines and other transportation routes out of Central Asia that pass through
Turkmenistan.
And in that event, what happens in
Ashgabat as far as its relationship with Moscow is concerned could have a
dramatic impact on the position in Central Asia as a whole of other outside
powers such as Turkey, China and the United States and on developments in Afghanistan
and the possible expansion of ISIS.
For the last two decades, Ashgabat
had pursued a policy of strict non-alignment, a position that precludes the
kind of cooperation Moscow would like to see. But as Stanislav Tarasov points
out in a Regnum commentary today, the situation may be changing and changing fast
(regnum.ru/news/polit/2067308.html).
The Russian commentator notes that a
foreign ministry spokesman has referred to Turkmenistan in recent days as “a
strategic partner.” That term does not
have a specific meaning, but it would appear to presage a different
relationship between Turkmenistan and Russia in the future.
As part of its “non-block policy,”
Ashgabat had been seeking to “break out of the post-Soviet geopolitical system”
by establishing ties not only with Moscow but with Turkey, China, the US and
others. But now it has fewer choices: It is part of the Caspian basin in which
many countries are interested and it faces threats from Afghanistan.
Aleksandr Blokhin, Russia’s
ambassador to Ashgabat, made a “curious” statement recently, Tarasov says. The diplomat
said that “today, Turkmenistan is stable and we are interested in having it
remain so and will do everything necessary to ensure that that is the case.” According
to Blokhin, Ashgabat must rely on Russia, Iran, China “and other countries.
At the end of November,
Berdymukhamedov met Putin in Tehran; and their exchange then, Tarasov says,
show just how complicated the situation is. It also showed why Russia is so interested
in improving ties with Turkmenistan and drawing that Central Asian country back
into its orbit.
On the one hand, the two discussed
Russia’s launch of cruise missiles from the Caspian, an action that the
Turkmenistan leader said was of concern to Kazakhstan. And on the other, they talked about Russia’s
campaign in Syria and its attacks on the Turkomans (or Turkmens) of that
country.
Ethnographers say that the Turkomans
of Syria have no relationship to the population of contemporary Turkmenistan,
but they add that there are nonetheless more genuinely ethnic Turkmens abroad
than in Turkmenistan, including in Turkey and “almost all the countries” of the
Middle East.
That is one of the reasons Ankara
has been so interested in developing ties with Ashgabat, ties that have taken
on a different meaning now that Russia and Turkey are in more or less open
conflict and that also involve issues of pipelines like TANAP, rail lines, and
the transit of gas, oil, and various industrial products.
If Turkmenistan were to move closer
to Moscow, that would be a real loss for Turkey and it would limit the options
of other countries in Central Asia and further afield. But it is entirely
possible that Ashgabat is now so worried about threats emanating from
Afghanistan that it is prepared to turn to anyone who can provide it with
protection.
No comments:
Post a Comment