Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 1 – Although the
number of terrorist acts in the North Caucasus fell in 2015, largely because of
the departure of radicals to Iraq and Syria, official repression of Salafis
there and especially efforts to exclude them from the legal zone is radicalizing other Muslims and inadvertently helping the Islamic
State, according to experts.
Yekaterina Sokryanskaya, director of
the International Crisis Group’s North Caucasus project, says that increasing
official pressure on the Salafis was directly connected with a shift in Russian
policy regarding those who wanted to leave the region to fight for ISIS or
other radical states (kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/275342/).
“If earlier jihadists practically
departed without any obstacles to the Middle East, then from the middle of 2014
and especially in 2015 after the beginning of bombing in Syria, the authorities
imposed harsh obstacles to their departure and sought to control all the
dissenting religious space,” she says.
More cases were brought against those
who had fought with ISIS and then returned, and in Daghestan, the authorities
took various steps first to isolate and control and then to suppress the salafi
communities. This process is “not new,” she says. “It has existed since the
mid-2000s,” but many thought this effort had “exhausted itself” and been
discarded.
“However, before the [Sochi]
Olympiad, the old methods were recalled, and in the last year they began to
acquire quite wild forms,” Sokiryanskaya says. In 2014, Daghestan led the
regions and republics of the North Caucasus in terms of the number of killed
and wounded in counter-terrorist actions.
Last year, those numbers fell by
about half, but “mass detentions of mosque parishioners throughout the republic
were carried out.” Those detained were
entered on official black lists and could not thereafter move about the
republic freely or travel outside it. Indeed, such pressure “became unbearable.”
One of the most important events of
the last 12 months, Sokiryanskaya says, was the conflict between salafis and
officials over the Kotrov mosque in Makhachkala and the closing of a number of
other mosques in Daghestan. (For background on this, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/sufi-salafi-war-breaking-out-in-north.html).
Official pressure on the Kotrov
mosque continues, ostensibly with the goal of forcing a change in imams. But there is an increasing sense, the analyst
says, that the authorities want to drive the salafis out of the legal field. “This
is a very bad thing,” she says, “because it weakens the position of the moderate
salafis and plays into the hands of the extremists.”
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