Public Opinion in Russia Moving in Radically Different Direction than in Western Countries, Dmitriyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 4 – Among the most remarkable developments over the past year is the speed with which Russian public opinion has shifted from economic concerns to issues of political freedom, changed from a short-term to a long-term perspective, and thus moved in a completely different direction from that of Western countries, Mikhail Dmitriyev says.

            In the first part of an extensive interview with Elena Kolebakina-Usmanov of Kazan’s Business-Gazeta, the Moscow analyst argues that Russian public opinion has become less populist and less isolationist at exactly the time that public opinion in Western countries has moved in the opposite direction (business-gazeta.ru/article/423099).

            But because Russian public opinion has ceased to be anchored in the same way it was until the presidential election, Dmitriyev continues, it is impossible to say exactly in what directions it may move in the next year. It has changed so radically that almost anything seems possible including a shift to populism and isolationism if the right leader emerges.

            Unlike a year ago, he says, Russians today “unexpectedly want not only ‘food and clothing,’ but respect from the state and appeal to the European values of the early 2000s.” One manifestation of this is that Russians in focus groups now rate Lenin more highly than Stalin because Lenin changed things.

            According to Dmitriyev, “until the spring of 2018, the attitudes of the population were kept in a very specific channel: they were stable, the so-called Crimean consensus.” But then they began to shift and shift rapidly, and now “almost no one recalls Crimea” as important as it seemed only a few months back.

            Russians’ priorities have shifted, he says. “These already no longer are economic questions but justice, understood as equality of all before the law.” And on foreign policy, they want not the populist answers on offer in the US and Britain but a more open and peace-loving relationship with the rest of the world.

            “It is surprising,” Dmitriyev argues, “that public attitudes in Russia are evolving in ways at odds with those in developed countries.” One aspect of this change is especially important. A year ago, Russians like people in some Western countries wanted overnight change;  now, ever more of them want to put in place arrangements that will allow for long-term development.

            Related to this development is another: Russians want “leaders of a new type,” not those who are strong and decisive but those who listen to the people and try to figure out together what needs to be done. As a result, some are now looking at Lenin, long a negative person in their minds in a new way. 

            That reflects in part the fact that Russians today do not see any new leaders on the horizon whom they would like to see in power.  And that carries with it “definite risks: On the one hand, people are taking a constructive approach to problems … but on the other … none of our respondents” can point to someone who fills the bill.

            That is a major threat to the situation because it means they are casting about for someone to believe it – and that too has led them back to Lenin, despite or perhaps because of all the criticism Putin and his predecessors have made of him.  “Now people say that Lenin could formulate new ideas, change the system, and successfully turn the country in a new direction.”

            Putin still ranks second (to Lenin) as the preferred leader in his focus groups, Dmitriyev says. “But the causes for which people approve the president have now also changed significantly. Only one in 50 says that he includes the unification of Crimea among the achievements of Vladimir Vladimirovich.”

            “Three or four years ago, almost all would have said that the peninsula is one of his main achievements. Now the Crimea effect has begun to exhaust itself.” And the only achievements of Putin people mention are those he made at the start of his reign – such as suppressing Chechnya – rather than any recent ones.

            Another change which some may see as pointing in an entirely different direction is that Russians today are less inclined to come together to protest large things but instead want to focus on issues of immediate concern to their cities and towns. According to Dmitriyev, “there are few changes these will come together in all-Russian actions.”