Russian Authorities Unsure How to React to Protests without Leaders, Analysts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 2 – Over the last year, something important has happened in Russian protests. They no longer have leaders but only “spontaneous coordinators,” analysts say, adding that in this new situation the authorities are uncertain as to how they should respond and the protests tend to last far longer.  

            “The meetings in Ingushetia lasted a month,” Denis Kolchin of the URA news agency who has surveyed expert opinion on this change says. “Shiiyes has resisted almost a year [and] the protests in Yekaterinburg ended after several days only because those taking part achieved their goals (ura.news/articles/1036279214).

            According to sociologist Mikhail Dmitriyev, the new situation reflects the fact that “the level of trust in political activists is not high. Instead, people are more likely to believe civic activists who work nearby and live in neighboring apartment blocks.” Dennis Volkov agrees and notes that these local people at least so far are “keeping things within legal limits.”

            Olga Russova, an Arkhangelsk sociologist who has studied the Shiyes case, says that her interviews with participants show that there are “no public opinion leaders in the classical sense. They are instead ordinary people who are far from politics.”

            Moscow sociologist Grigory Yudin argues that “the current protests are a story not about leaders but about the people. It is laughable when siloviki detain those whom they consider the leaders of the protest. They manage to do so, but the protests don’t stop as a result.”

            In this new situation, the authorities have been uncertain how to react and what they have done has varied widely.  “If in Moscow in most cases, standard detentions have occurred,” Kolchin says; in the regions, everything has taken place along different scenarios.”  In Ingushetia, the authorities did not act immediately expecting things to peter out.

            In Shiyes, the powers that be have tried to intimidate the protesters but without success. And “in Yekaterinburg, the argument about the future of the square was resolved by President Vladimir Putin who proposed conducting a poll” on what city residents want.

            Yudin says there is nothing surprising in all this because, despite assumptions, there is no central staff which makes all the decisions.  In general, the dividing line for the authorities is whether the protesters are focused on something that is part of the federal agenda. If they are, the powers that be are far more likely to move quickly and harshly than if they aren’t.

            Yekaterina Sokiryanskaya, a specialist on the North Caucasus, agrees. “The reaction is situational. When I heard about the decision on the Chechen-Ingush border, I thought,” she says, “perhaps there is no advisor in the Presidential Administration who could explain why this action opens ‘a Pandora’s box.’”

            The months’ long protest did not cause Moscow to back down on the border, but it did undermine the authority of Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and ultimately led to his being sacked as Ingush head.

            Whether regional heads will decide to take harsher actions in the future depends on the answer to at least three questions, the sociologists say: Will protesters increasingly raise federal issues? Will the meetings grow in size and find an echo beyond where they began? And will the demonstrations stay within the limits of the law?

            At present, the demonstrators are doing so, but Yundin suggests; “but one must not exclude” the possibility that things will change and with that the response of the authorities as well.