Polish Scholar Sees Six Possible Russian Futures, Only Two of Which aren’t Disastrous from Moscow’s Point of View

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 22 – Kazimierz Woycicki, a specialist on Eastern Europe at the University of Warsaw, says that there are six possible scenarios for Russia’s future. From Moscow’s perspective, four are disastrous; and two are more hopeful although apparently in the Polish scholar’s view less likely.

            The four negative scenarios, he suggests, include “the territorial disintegration of the Russian Federation,” “the gradual but peaceful falling apart of Russia,” “the Balkanization of Russia,” and “the fall of Russia under the influence of China” (k-politika.ru/mrachnye-prognozy-v-polshe-raspisali-shest-scenariev-budushhego-rossii).

            The two more positive ones at least from the perspective of the Russian leadership at the present time, Woycicki argues, are “the restoration by Moscow of its influence with the acquisition of its ‘former imperial position’” and “modernization conducted on the basis of cooperation with the West.”

            Russia could fall apart if Moscow can’t cope with the difficulties of controlling its enormous territory or attract outside funding for investment. In the end, the Polish scholar says, Russia could lose everything to the east of the Urals and the Caucasus. This process could be violent or peaceful.

            Woychicki says that any “’Balkanization’” of Russia would lead to threats not only to Russia itself but to the international community and likely generate wars around what is today the periphery of the country. The fourth scenario, likely if Russia weakens further, would result in a fundamental reordering of the international scene.

            None of these is inevitable, however, the Polish expert continues. It is possible to high oil and gas prices will allow Moscow to build up the country and that weakness in the West will open the way for the restoration of a Russia-led empire.