Younger Generations Not Primary Driver of Political Change, Belarusian Political Scientist Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – Most commentators place their hopes for political change in the younger generation, but this is wrong on two grounds, Andrey Kazakevich says. On the one hand, older groups often play a larger role in pushing for political change; and on the other, younger ones may not be as radically different as many assume.     

            The Belarusian political scientist says that since 1991, there have been “significant generational changes” in his country but that they “have not led to a change in the regime” (thinktanks.by/publication/2021/10/25/andrey-kazakevich-prihod-novogo-pokoleniya-ne-privedet-k-politicheskim-izmeneniyam.html).

            “We can see that over the last 25 years everything has been completely changed: the structure of the population and the complete replacement of the generation which has come to adulthood and which defined the political development of present-day Belarus,” Kazakevich continues.

            “Those who lived in the Soviet Union are already an absolute minority,” he says. “And those who have any social experience within the Soviet system are as well. The majority of Belarusians have lived exclusively in an independent country. For this, this is a political given.” And the state they confront is weaker than was its Soviet predecessor.

            As a result, Kazakevich argues, “counting on a new change of generations and the rise of the young to have a serious influence on the domestic political scene is simply senseless.”

            “Moreover, “there is research which shows quite well that the greatest political activity in the events of 2020 was shown not by the youngest but by people aged 30 to 50. They were the main problem for the powers and the backbone of the political and protest movement,” the political scientist says.

            “The very youngest generation, those under 30 in contrast displayed political apathy and disinterest in political processes. And there is no basis to assert that precisely this young generation was the driver of social mobilization.” It was their elders who have been the drivers for change.