Referenda Efforts Consequential Even If Russian Officials Block Them, Toth-Czifra Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – Environmental groups in Russian regions are increasingly seeking to hold referenda on issues of concern to them (7x7-journal.ru/news/2021/08/19/aktivisty-obyavili-o-provedenii-11-regionalnyh-referendumov-po-ekologicheskim-problemam), but officials have used a variety of means to block all such attempts.

            Nevertheless, Andras Toh-Czifra, a Hungarian analyst of Russian affairs based in New York, argues that such efforts are not only a sign of popular activism but also have a variety of positive consequences as far as the population is concerned and thus merit close attention (ridl.io/ru/nesostojavshiesja-jekologicheskie-referendumy/).

            Even though the Russian constitution gives the population the right to hold referenda, that form of democratic action is rarely used. The last time one was held at the all-Russia level was in 1993, and they have been “rare” at the regional and local levels. Where they have taken place, they have been supported by officials who want to make changes of one kind or another.

            The 2004 law on referenda specifies that any group which can collect as few signatures as two percent of the number of voters can demand a referendum, but officials deploy a variety of measures ranging from rejection of signatures to physical intimidation to prevent such efforts from bearing their intended fruit.

            According to Toth-Czifra, Russian officials work especially hard to block any referenda at the local or regional level that appears to be “a manifestation of pan-national issues.” Among these are efforts to hold popular votes on a variety of ecological issues. Their success in blocking such votes leads many to believe that these failed efforts have not impact.

            But that is incorrect, the analyst says. Referenda efforts raise popular awareness not only in the region where they are made but in other regions where people learn about the issues activists are advancing. Officials may block voting and but nonetheless respond by modifying their policies as a result.

            However, he says, “perhaps most important there is statistical evidence” suggesting that where such efforts are made or where voters protest in other ways are “less likely to experience massive fraud” in the elections that do occur.” It appears that the authorities in those places see such fraud as posing risks for themselves (golosinfo.org/articles/145500).

            And what that means is that civic activism even when it is blocked in its immediate goals may have transformative effects on the Russian political system, Czifra-Toth concludes, an outcome that means such efforts are more valuable than they might appear and deserve more attention than they usually receive.