No One Must be Under Any Illusion that Peace is Possible as Long as Putin Regime Exists, Skobov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 29 – The Kremlin had at least two different outcomes that it would have been willing to live with in Ukraine – the installation of a collaborationist government in Kyiv or the capitulation of the current one. The heroism of the Ukrainian people has made the achievement of either in the near term impossible, Aleksandr Skobov says.

            And consequently, Vladimir Putin is casting about for a third that he may be able to sell to the Russian elites and Russian people as a victory – Russia’s acquisition of a land corridor to Crimea. But that won’t work unless it is presented as a step toward his larger original goals (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=6244216344D55).

            As a result, that is not a move toward peace by the Putin regime but only a pause; and both Ukraine and the West must not be under any illusions that a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine (and the West) is possible as long as Putin and his regime remain in power in Moscow, the Moscow commentator says.

            It is especially important to keep that in mind after the release of the draft agreement between Moscow and Kyiv that has been released after talks in Istanbul. That agreement gives Russia very little of what Putin seeks and retains for Ukraine most of what its people and government are fighting for.

            Indeed, that draft creates the impression that Russia is “ready to give up.” But as quickly became obvious, that is not the case. It may pause but it won’t give up anything. As one Russian negotiator put it, Putin will decide; and the chances he will accept the Istanbul principles are somewhat less than zero, Skobov says.

            No one in Ukraine, the West or Russia itself should be deceived on that account.  Moscow may not have the resources it needs to achieve its primary goals in Ukraine, but that doesn't mean that it is about to give up short-term or long-term.