Putin’s War in Ukraine Triggering Third Round of Disintegration of Russian Empire, Zakharov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 22 – The Russian Empire fell apart in 1917 and then was reassembled by the efforts of the Bolsheviks only to fall apart again in 1991 because of their approach. Now, by invading Ukraine as he has in the name of restoring the empire again, Vladimir Putin has triggered the third round of the empire’s disintegration, Denis Zakharov says.

            “One of the basic scenarios of the collapse of great powers and former empires is quite common,” the Ukrainian commentator says. It involves the significant weakening of the central powers as a result of a change in government or a crisis of power.” Russia falls into the latter (apostrophe.ua/article/politics/2022-03-22/gibel-imperii-pochemu-russkiy-reyh-obrechen-na-ischeznovenie/44942).

            Today, Zakharov says, “power in Russia is centralized, but the centrifugal trends in national republics like Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, or the republics of the North Caucaus are quite strong.” And an explosion in any one of them will be enough to lead almost all of them to move toward independence.

            “The strengthening of nationalism and religious intolerance in one of the mono-national regions of ‘the federation’ is completely possible,” especially in the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That has weakened Moscow and led many regions and republics to question why their resources are going for the Kremlin’s purposes rather than their own.

            According to the Ukrainian commentator, “the degradation of foreign policy from a conditional liberal and pro-Western one to a chauvinistic and aggressive one which lacks any sensible conception and cannot offer anything attractive for emulation and is a death sentence for Putin and his system.”

            As a result of this shift, Zakharov says, “Russia has become isolated from the civilized world, and the unrestricted striving to compensate for this by means of ‘a strategic partnership’ with China will lead either to still greater dependence on China” up to and including loss of territory “or to nothing at all if Beijing decides the West is more important to it than Russia.

            In this situation, the Kremlin will continue to try to frighten and provoke the West but this approach “will lead to a still greater impoverishment of the Russians” which in turn will ultimately have political consequences, including the strengthening of the West and of Russia’s neighbors.

            As for Ukraine, “the attack of the Russian army has allowed a political nation to take final shape.” And for the Russians, this is now “the main irritant” because it highlights the difference in the trajectories of Russia, on the one hand, and Ukraine, on the other, Zakharov continues and a development that will only accelerate the demise of the Russian Empire.