Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 4 – Moscow is making progress in gaining international recognition for its claims to the Arctic, in part because the United States has not ratified the Law of the Sea agreement under which those claims are adjudicated and thus does not have a seat at the table to object (fondsk.ru/news/2023/12/04/arkticheskiy-shelf-politiko-pravovye-uspekhi-rossii-nuzhdayutsya-v-zakreplenii.html).
But Russia is being constrained in its development of the Arctic by US-led Western sanctions. It can’t get the key components it used to import either for shipping or for the development of natural resources there, and China has not been able or perhaps willing to fill the gap (expert-ural.com/articles/zavisimost-rossii-ot-zapadnih-tehnologiy-pererabotki-uglevodorodov-zashkalivaet.html and thebarentsobserver.com/ru/promyshlennost-i-energiya/2023/12/zamorozka-planov-osvoenie-zapolyarnogo-ugolnogo-mestorozhdeniya).
As a result, and likely for as long as the war in Ukraine continues and Western sanctions are maintained, Moscow will find it almost impossible to take advantage of the claims it is gaining recognition for. Instead, it will pocket and proclaim a Russian victory as far as recognition is concerned but prove unable to follow it up on the ground and the sea.
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