Paul Goble
Staunton, Dec. 29 – Perhaps the most
remarkable thing about recent history is that in less than 40 years, two world
orders have collapsed, the first in 1989-1991 and the second now, Sergey
Medvedev, the host of Radio Liberty’s Archaeology Program which looks back to
the recent past in order to better understand the present and the future.
In many respects, he argues, what is
taking place now is a reversal of 35 years ago. “Then an era opened up; now it
is closing.” Then walls and dictators fell, leading to “naïve” ideas about the
end of history; now, new walls are going up and democracy is being destroyed (svoboda.org/a/god-velikogo-pereloma-sergey-medvedev-ob-itogah-2025-go/33634292.html).
“Today,” Medvedev says, “Today
it is becoming clear that the era between 1989 and 2025 was not the norm, but
an exception, a unique opportunity” for the expansion of freedom. “The
possibilities seemed endless;” and events like 911 and Putin’s Munich speech in
2007 were dismissed as bumps on the road rather than harbingers of a new
direction.
But 2005
became the watershed, because the current epochal shift “did not being with
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but with Donald Trump’s second coming to the White
House and the radical reversal of American policy. It was Trump rather than
Putin who closed down the previous era and became “the embodiment of the spirit
of the new age.”
That
turn above all marked “the end of the American myth and the American century, a
time when America was the pillar of the world order, a gobal model, a global
benefactor and a global policeman” which “committed many injustices … but
overall remained a normative force that maintained order based on values,
rules, and faith in freedom and responsibility.”
According
to Medvedev, “That America is no more, and Trump's second presidency confirms
this fact. For too long, we have ignored the social and demographic shifts in
the US, the rise of inequality and resentment (read J.D. Vance's Hillbilly
Elegy), the hatred of elites, "intellectuals," and the deep
state, and the sclerosis of the political and party system.”
And he
continues: “The problem is not with Trump's personality, but with the fact that
his revolution was brewing, and his re-election with a convincing majority is
the best proof of this. The Trump phenomenon is objective and inevitable just
as the Putin phenomenon is objective and inevitable.”
“Regardless of how one feels
about them both,” Medvedev says, “both are figures born of national culture,
who legally rose to the head of superpowers and are changing the course of
world history. Such individuals appear at the intersection of historical trends
and personal characteristics, however accidental, willful, or inadequate they
may seem.”
Both Trump and Putin “pursue the
same goal,” he continues, “the destruction of the liberal world order that
emerged after the Cold War which they believe is unfair to their countries:
Trump is convinced that the liberal world order exploits America and Putin
believes it humiliates Russia.”
“In this sense then, the two are
strategic allies; and Ukraine and Europe stand as annoying obstacles in their
path.”
Medvedev argues that “Putin is
not winning in Ukraine, but he is currently winning the war against the West. He
imposed this war on the world, forcing everyone to play by his rules, he holds
the strategic initiative and always makes the first move, to which the West is
forced to respond.”
With the blood of Ukrainians, Putin
is “reclaiming Russia’s place in the world and his own right to exist.” But
despite that, “it doesn’t even occur to anyone to raise the question of defeating
Putin’s Russia in the same way as the allies did with Hitler’s Germany some 80
years ago.
For most
Western leaders, “Russia is too big to fail; Russia is too big (and too
nuclear, and too belligerent, and too unpredictable) to simply abolish it or
raise the question of its military defeat and regime change: there is only
one thing that Western politicians fear even more than the fall of Kyiv – the
fall of Moscow and the subsequent hypothetical chaos.”
In much
of the “old” West, rightwing populists are either in power or close to it,
Medvedev suggests, a reflection of the way new media have played up the
hostility of ordinary citizens to the complexities of modernity and their belief
that all their problems are the work of elites, leftists, minorities or
immigrants.
According
to Medvedev, “The result is MAGA-Trumpism in America and Brexit in Britain,
where the disappearance of the political center and the strengthening of
radicals on both flanks threatens to tear apart the political body of
democratic countries.” Other examples of this danger can easily be found as for
example in Israel.
What awaits us in 2026?” the
commentator asks rhetorically. “ It's easier to say what won't happen: there
will be neither stability nor peace (neither in Ukraine nor on a global scale),
nor a return to the previous, pre-war state – we are in a situation of
polycrisis, where different systems are failing simultaneously, causing
cascading effects.
"Last year was difficult for all of us, but don't worry, next year
will be even worse," Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni promised in her
Christmas address, like in the old joke about the pessimist and the optimist,
where the former gloomily says "it can't get any worse," and the
latter joyfully replies: "Oh yes, it can!"
Today, what hope there is is to be found “where it would seem there should
be the least of it: in Ukraine,” a country and a people “now resisting the
impending chaos both of the Russian horde and global disorder, and it is
Ukraine that is the focal point of international solidarity, faith institutions
and in justice, the foundations of which are now being tested.”
“Ukraine stands guard over
Western civilization and European values,” Medvedev argues. “It is not so much
that it seeks protection from NATO and the EU, but rather that it itself
protects the EU and NATO from Russian barbarism, and that is why it deserves
membership in both institutions as a provider, not a consumer, of security.
Consequently, the Radio Liberty
commentator concludes, despite everything “we should not be afraid of the future
but should meet it with dignity as the Ukrainians have met the Russian invaders.”