Since 2022, Russia has Lost Political Influence in Former Soviet Republics but Nearly Doubled Its Trade with Them, Barbashin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – There is nearly universal recognition that Putin’s war in Ukraine has cost Moscow political influence across the former Soviet space, with other countries, first and foremost China and the United States gaining influence as a result, according to Anton Barbashin, editor of The Riddle portal.

            Attention to this Russia loss has overshadowed and often obscured another trend likely to become increasingly important. Since 2020, before the start of Putin’s war, and now, trade turnover between Russia and these countries has nearly doubled from 63 billion US dollars to 125 billion US dollars in 2024 (ridl.io/ru/sosedi-strategicheskoj-vazhnosti/).

            Trade between the non-Russian countries of the former Soviet space and China has increased only slightly more – and yet in that case, Barbashin says, many observers treat that growth as indicative of growing Chinese influence while they often ignore the fact that Russian trade with these countries increased nearly as much.

            In many cases, this Russian-non-Russian trade has involved the re-export of goods under sanction from the non-Russian countries to Russia, an indication that the war has had exactly the opposite effect on economic relations between Moscow and these other countries. Indeed, the analyst says, one could say the war has led the Kremlin to “rediscover” the former Soviet space.

            Barbashin gives statistics about all this for each of the countries in the region, noting that the only former Soviet republic (other than the Baltic states) where trade has actually fallen since the start of the war is Moldova, which has reoriented its economic ties away from Russia to the European Union. 

            Such expanded trade between Russia and the other non-Russian countries in the former Soviet space which is likely to continue lays the groundwork for an expansion in political influence eventually, albeit likely of a kind less enthusiastic and more pragmatic than was the case earlier, according to Barbashin.