Paul Goble
Staunton, Nov. 2 – Until recently, almost half of the population of Kyrgyzstan was younger than 25; but now that Central Asian republic has entered into a new demographic era, one of falling birthrates and greater longevity, positing challenges for Bishkek that it and analysts of the region seldom thought about earlier.
Twenty years ago, the National Statistics Committee says, the average Kyrgyz woman had between 3.5 and 4 children. Now, that fertility rate has fallen to 2.8, still above the replacement level of 2.2 but increasingly eclipsed by the growing size of the pension-aged population (bugin.info/detail/kyrgyzstan-stareet-molod/ru).
In the 1990s, pensioners formed no more than four percent of the population. Now, they represent approximately six percent of the residents of the country. And Kyrgyzstan’s demographers predict that falling birthrates and extended life expectancies will mean that they will form 12 percent of the population by 2050.
That changes the demographic balance of the country. At present, there are roughly five working age Kyrgyz for every pensioner; but in 25 years, there will be only three – and the burden on the state will rise because there will be fewer young people in families to take care of the elderly.
In addition, Bishkek must shift its spending from schools to hospitals because members of the oldest age cohorts are more likely to need care for diseases than are younger people; and the government must make plans for a very different pattern of outmigration to get jobs and send money home than the one on which Kyrgyzstan currently relies.
For decades, analysts have focused on the rapid growth of population in Central Asia and the explosive number of young people there. But the figures from Kyrgyzstan suggest that the region is entering a new era, one that will require not only changes in policy but in analytic perspectives as well.
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