At Putin’s Order, Russian Scholars Launch First Major Research Program since 1950s on Ethnic Russians

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 24 – Vladimir Putin has ordered the ministry of science and higher education to organize a new ethnographic study of the ethnic Russian nation over the next three years (vz.ru/news/2025/12/22/1382532.html), the first such country-wide study of that subject since the 1950s. 

            The program which will be led by the Moscow Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology and involve scholars at ten universities is something Russian nationalists have long wanted and will further tilt Russian academic attention away from the non-Russians, the traditional focus of ethnographic research there, toward the ethnic Russian majority. 

            Ethnic Russian nationalists for decades have been alarmed that the country’s ethnographic institute has focused on the non-Russians and neglected the ethnic Russian majority, a position that defines how many there think and how their intellectual progency spread across the country do as well.

            For the latest example of such criticism and of delight that Putin is changing the direction of ethnography in the Russian Federation in a “correct” direction, see Olga Andreyeva’s passionately expressed article,“The Russian People Returns” (in Russian, in Vzglyad, Dec. 24, at vz.ru/opinions/2025/12/24/1382853.html).

            At one level, of course, one can only welcome expanded attention to ethnic Russians as a community; but at a more fundamental way, this shift, ordered from on high, almost certainly at a time of budgetary stringency will mean that scholars in the Russian Federation and the Russian government following them will devote less attention to the non-Russians.

            But this increased scholarly attention to ethnic Russians may backfire on its Kremlin author, on the one hand, by increasing public awareness of how diverse the Russian nation is, something Putin doesn’t like to admit, and on the other, by encouraging Russian nationalists to take an even harder line against non-Russians, something likely to provoke strong reactions.

In Restricting Release of Statistics, Moscow Now Focusing Above All on Demographic Data, ‘To Be Precise’ Portal Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 23 – Over the last decade and especially since Putin launched his expanded invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has cut back on the release of statistics on a wide variety of issues. In the past year, the To Be Precise portal says, it has restricted or even stopped the release of demographic data in particular.

            Since 2024, it reports, neither Rosstat nor the Unified Inter-Agency Statistical Platform (which may close in 2026) has published summary data on causes of death or regional data on life expectancy. And it has reduced release of data on births and deaths (tochno.st/materials/v-2025-godu-iz-otkrytogo-dostupa-ubrali-bolee-300-datasetov-cashhe-vsego-skryvali-demograficeskuiu-statistiku).

            These government statistical outlets have not published data on immigration; and some fear that they will stop publishing data on all changes in the size of the population of the country, thereby allowing the Kremlin to make claims that scholars won’t be able to challenge and that officials will have to act without knowing that key variable, To be Precise says.

            Demographers say that restrictions on the release of data appear to be a reaction by the powers that be to news stories that show conditions in Russia in a negative way; but the powers forget that without this information, their own bureaucracies won’t be in a position to come up with adequate policies or apply them effectively.

            Just how far the Kremlin is prepared to go in closing down this window on Russian life will become evident in the next few weeks when Rosstat and other Russian government agencies are scheduled to release annual reports. If those don’t contain new data – and that unfortunately is likely to be the case – demographic information from Russia is going to be much harder to get.

Russia Will Continue to Inflict More Violence on Its Peoples and the World than Demise of that Muscovite State would Entail, Buryat Activist Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 23 – The Kremlin and most of the Russian opposition insist that the decolonization of the Russian state will involve more violence than its preservation, Anna Zuyeva says; but in fact, that state now and in the future regardless of who controls it will continue to inflict far more violence on its own people and on the world.

            And even if the departure of some republics and regions does involve some violence because pro-Moscow forces, including many now in the opposition will resist, the Buryat activist now living in exile in Estonia says, “a horrific end is better than horrors without end” which will be the case if the Muscovite state continues to exist.

            In an extensive interview with the Sibreal portal, Zuyeva makes a number of additional noteworthy points. First, she says targets of repression in republics like Buryatia are identified by local siloviki and then confirmed by Moscow because locals know the situation better (sibreal.org/a/kak-zhurnalistka-iz-buryatii-otkazalas-zhit-po-pravilam-imperii/33629303.html).

            Second, she says that the Russian opposition may be against the war in Ukraine and against Putin; but they are not prepared to break with the Kremlin over the maintenance of Russia in its current borders and will thus set the stage for a recrudescence of violence and aggression however “democratic” they promote themselves as being.

            And third, Zuyeva, whose teenage son now speaks Estonian and goes to an Estonian school, says she won’t return to live in Buryatia even if it does become an independent state. Estonia is now her home, she says; and while she will visit Buryatia, neither she nor her son is ever likely to live there. 

 

Christians Not Affiliated with Moscow Patriarchate Increasingly Targets of Repression in Russia

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 23 – Vladimir Putin keeps saying that the Russian government supports “all traditional religions on the territory of Russia” (nazaccent.ru/content/44965-vladimir-putin-zayavil-o-podderzhke-vseh/); but in fact, he and his government don’t do so but rather limit what support they give to religious structures that cooperate with the state.

            The clearest example of this, Point Media journalist Ivan Zheyanov says, is to be found in the case of Christianity where the Russian state, supported by the Moscow Patriarchate, is increasingly targeting Christians not affiliated with or subordinate to the ROC MP (pointmedia.io/story/694986c5e657f59b666dce95).

            The repression of the Jehovah’s Witnesses has been going on for some time and continues unabated. But other Christian groups within Russia are also being fined by the government for activities that are not coordinated with the ROC MP or the Russian government including but not limited to the Gideons and those who hold services or sing songs independently.

            This pattern makes a mockery of Putin’s claim to support traditional religions. Instead, the Kremlin leader and his regime are prepared to support only those who are part of religious structures that have agreed to work with the state and often, as has been well documented, are in fact run by state agencies for their purposes rather than the religious for theirs.

            Unfortunately, Russian propaganda to the contrary on this point is only rarely challenged, and many people in Western countries, including perhaps most prominently the United States, have accepted the notion that Putin’s Russia is a bastion in the defense of traditional values rather than being simply an authoritarian state on the way to the restoration of totalitarianism.

Building a Ship in China Now Costs 60 to 70 Percent less than Building the Same One in Russia, Moscow Expert Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 23 – China enjoys an enormous advantage over Russia when it comes to shipbuilding. Its yards can build the same ship that Russia wants for 60 to 70 percent less than Russia can, and that advantage hurts Russia in another way too Mikhail Burmistrov says: it means China isn’t prepared to sell Russia the electronics needed for modern vessels.

            The Infoline-Analysis expert says that Russian wharves have become so uncompetitive that that problem, along with corruption, sanctions, and the inability to come up with financing means that Russia cannot realistically expect to meet its shipbuilding targets for the next decade at a minimum (vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2025/12/23/1165527-plan-grazhdanskogo-sudostroeniya).

            It almost certainly also means that Chinese ships rather than Russian ones are likely to come to dominate the Northern Sea Route in the next several years, an outcome that will in turn mean that Beijing rather than Moscow will have the whip hand for the development of the Arctic and its natural resources, all of Putin’s boasts notwithstanding.

Russians who Never Fought in Ukraine are Identifying as Veterans to Get Benefits but Police are Doing Nothing in Response, Activists Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 22 – As has happened after wars in the past, many Russians now who never fought in Ukraine are declaring themselves veterans of that conflict and even wearing uniforms and medals to get benefits. But in contrast to the past, Russian police are doing nothing to hold them to account for this fraud lest they call too much attention to it.

            Just how many Russian men are doing this is unknown, but the problem, which seems to be concentrated in areas close to the battle lines and thus may be part of a strategy to avoid being dragooned into military service rather than anything else, is attracting ever more attention in Russia, with many there saying something should be done. 

            This has outraged many genuine veterans, some of whom have taken action. Others are angry as well. Kirill Kabanov, a member of the Presidential Council on Human Rights, says he wants those making false claims about being veterans to be charged with discrediting the army and punished accordingly (svpressa.ru/war21/article/496006/).

            Other observers, like Aleksandr Chistyakov of the Russian Literary Society, are calling for a different approach. They say that those who falsely claim to be veterans are suffering from mental disorders and should be confined in psychiatric facilities, a step that would both discredit the practice and make it less likely that others will follow in their wake.

‘Unless Moscow Changes Course, Russia will Lose Siberia,’ Academician Tulokhonov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 23 – At a Moscow conference on transportation routes east of the Urals, Academician Albert Tulokhonov argued that unless Moscow quicky changes its approach to this issue, “Russia will find itself without Siberia” and will suffer all the political, geopolitical and economic problems such a loss will entail.

            The geography and former senator told a Higher School of Economics conference chaired by Sergey Karaganov who has long urged that Moscow refocus its attention from European portions of the country to areas east of the Urals that in recent years, what the center has done has “led to the degradation of the eastern regions” (business-gazeta.ru/article/690798).

            “Over the last 30 years,” Tulokhonov continued, “our country has not created a single major enterprise in this regard equivalent in scope to those we built in the past.” The authorities in Moscow have limited themselves to coming up with ever new strategies but not mobilized the country to realize them.

            And he said he was especially concerned by “the loss of technological and cadres sovereignty” that this approach had led to. In Soviet times, Moscow cooperated with other republics of the USSR and fraternal countries, but now “Russia remains without these competences and partners, and its own cadres have been shifted to other regions.”

            In reporting this and other speeches to the HSE conference, Kazan’s Business-Gazeta portal says that it has a draft of the Paths and Roads of Siberia planning document that was prepared by Karaganov’s team of experts and that participants in the December 19 meeting were called upon to discuss.

            Among the most important conclusions they reached was that unless Moscow develops the shore support capacity of the Northern Sea Route quickly, even that national project will be remain unfulfilled and even that “without railways” and river transport connected it to the rest of Russia, “the Northern Sea Route will remain isolated” and at risk of being taken over by others.

The More Putin Seeks to Russify the Non-Russians, the More Actively They will Resist, Eidman Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 22 – The more Putin seeks to Russify the non-Russians within the Russian Federation both directly and via Russian nationalist groups he supports or are allied with the Kremlin, the more nationalistic the non-Russians will become and the more they will resist, according to Igor Eidman.

            The Russian sociologist who now lives in emigration in Berlin says that the interaction of these two trends points to an approaching explosion (idelreal.org/a/chem-silnee-davyat-tem-silnee-soprotivlenie-igor-eydman-o-rusifikatsii-roste-natsionalnogo-samosoznaniya-i-buduschem-rossii-posle-putina/33626670.html).

            In the past, the Putin regime understood this interrelationship and both limited its own Russification policies and cracked down on Russian nationalists. But since Putin launched his expanded war in Ukraine, the Kremlin leader has decided he needs the Russian nationalists more and thus has changed course.

            Since 2022, Eidman continues, “Russian nationalism has become part of the official discourse and already not just civic but also ethnic.” This isn’t widely advertised, “but never the less, it is the case.” That reflects not only Putin’s views but those of “the ruling hierarchy” dominated by the siloviki who “always have been nationalists, xenophobes and anti-Semites.”

            By their actions, he suggests, the Kremlin leadership is creating new challenges to itself among both Russian nationalists who will never believe the top has gone far enough and non-Russians who are convinced that Moscow will only get worse as far as they are concerned and that they must seek independence to ensure their survival.

            In fact, both Russians and the world need the non-Russians to succeed in doing so because “as long as the Russian empire exists, its expansion can stop only for a limited time before inevitably resume. Consequently, to eliminate the threat to European and world security, this empire must collapse.”

            That is because “as long as it exists, this threat will inevitably reappear eventually. That is not some personal wish of mine,” Eidman says; but rather in general a trend of logic of history. All empires collapsed in the 20^th century … but the Russian Empire has survived. That is an historical anomaly, but it will eventually be eliminated.”

            “That is the logic of history,” the Russian sociologist concludes,” regardless of whether anyone likes it or not.” 

Putin Opening the Way to ‘Creeping Islamization’ of Russian Traditional Values, Furman Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 21 – At his recent open line press conference, Vladimir Putin declared that “all the peoples of the Russian Federation have common traditional values” and that God “doesn’t know that people on earth are divided into various churches” because it doesn’t matter what faith one has, “when people together are being shot at.”

            Such an approach appears to lie behind efforts in the Duma to impose fines on those who discredit whatever the Kremlin believes are “traditional values” and work in the Kremlin itself to create an ideology embracing both Orthodox Christianity and Islam, commentator Lera Furman says (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/12/21/krestom-i-polumesiatsem-po-traditsionnym-tsennostiam).

            That the Kremlin is moving in this direction, she says, is suggested by a telegram channel post by Kirill Kabanov, the head of the National Anti-Corruption Committee, who says that “technologists in the Kremlin are seriously working on the integration of Islamic components in ‘the national spiritual-moral values” of Russia (t.me/kabanovkv/6450).

            According to Kabanov, “it has become clear why the state still cannot give a firm rebuff to the radical Islamism spreading throughout the country” and that “at the very top” of the Russian political system, it has been recognized that “the main vector of the new traditionalism’ is the East, Eurasianism, and the Golden Horde” because of “decadence” in Christianity.

            Furman says that her sources “believe that the Kabanov leak may have originated with Sergey Karaganov, a veteran of Putin’s geopolitical thinking, a professor at the Higher School of Economics and the long-time chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy” who has written about the need to make a radical turn to the east.

            “Among other things,” Furmanov says, “’creeping Islamization,’ not at the level of non-religious practices but in the format of the ideology of ‘common traditional values’ is now considered by the authorities as an antidote to the inevitably anti-immigrant sentiments that may flare up in the event of a mass return” of veterans from the war in Ukraine.

            Many Orthodox Christians and even more Russian nationalists will be appalled and infuriated by such a development, Furman suggests; but the official hierarchy of the Russian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has shown that it is willing to “accept anything” that the Kremlin asks for – and so it will likely go along.

            After all, Patriarch Kirill once declared that Putin himself had once said that “we are closer to Islam,” adding that he thinks that too. (On the complicated relationship of Islam and Orthodoxy in Kremlin thinking and its potential to backfire among Russians, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/02/moscow-patriarchate-said-opening-way.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/05/russian-orthodox-patriarchs-words.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/06/rise-of-orthodox-russian-nationalism.html.)

Putin’s War in Ukraine Comes Home as 8300 Anti-Moscow Incidents Hit Russia in 2025

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 22 – Over the last 12 months, there have been 8300 military actions directed against Moscow on the territory of the Russian Federation, according to new research carried out by Novaya Gazeta Europe, newly half of them involved drone attacks and only slightly fewer Ukrainian military actions on Russian territory.

            The paper reports that 48 percent of these incidents involved drone attacks, 41 percent direct military action by Ukrainian forces on Russian territory, three percent rocket and artillery attacks from Ukraine onto targets in Russia, and seven percent other military actions (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/12/22/novaia-evropa-v-2025-godu-v-rossii-proizoshlo-83-tysiachi-voennykh-intsidentov-news).

            While the number of drone attacks has been on the rise – up by 33 percent since the end of 2024 -- the other forms of Ukrainian attacks on Russia have been reduced In number as Western governments providing assistance to Kyiv have limited the kind of actions that Ukrainian forces can take while making use of aid these countries have provided. 

            As a result of Western restrictions since January 2025, the number of rocket attacks has declined by two-third, the number of military actions at sea by half, and the use of bombs dropped by aircraft has fallen by more than three-quarters. These declines all began in March when the US and other countries placed limits on how Kyiv could use weapons they supplied.

Propensity of North Caucasus Courts to Favor Fathers over Mothers in Custody Battles Sparks Rise of ‘Divorce Tourism’ to There from Russian Regions

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – The Russian Federation under Vladimir Putin has seen the rise of “tourism” from one region to another either to get things available in one but not in another, to pay less for goods and services, or to gain benefits such as bonuses for joining the Russian military to fight in Putin’s war in Ukraine.

            But another form of “tourism” is on the rise, according to the Daptar news agency which tracks how women are treated and often mistreated in the North Caucasus. According to that agency, courts in the North Caucasus are more likely to favor fathers over mothers in custody battles during divorces (daptar.ru/2025/12/18/razvodny-turizm-na-kavkaze/).

            As a result, fathers seeking custody of children frequently try to move themselves and the custody cases to the North Caucasus where courts, following tradition, are far more likely to give these men custody of their children than as Russian courts elsewhere which tend to favor the mothers.

            This is no small thing for those involved, Daptar continues; but what may be most important is that this clearly documents the way in which courts in various parts of the Russian Federation diverge for cultural and historical reasons and the understanding some Russians have that they can benefit by engaging in “divorce tourism.”

            But even more than that, the examples that the Daptar agency provides – and this is exactly the kind of reporting it does on a regular basis – show that for all the Kremlin talks about having created a common legal space, that does not in fact exist at least in cases where men benefit over women. 

Russian Government’s Word of the Year is ‘Birthrate,’ Study of Official Documents Concludes

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 22 – Polls have shown that for residents of Russia the word of the year is “anxiety;” for grammarians, it is “zoomer;” and for the Pushkin Institute, it is “victory.” But a survey of official documents shows that as far as the Russian government is concerned, the real word of the year is “birthrate.”

            Analysts at the Russian Academy of Economics and State Survey reviewed 10,553 government documents including laws and orders issued in 2025 and found that “birthrate” was by far the most frequently used word over the past 12 months (ranepa.ru/news/rozhdaemost-gosudarstvennoe-slovo-2025-goda/).

            They also reported that the frequency of the use of this word had increased by eight times compared with the figure for 2024, an indication that the Putin regime has become far more focused on this issue than any other and one that suggests this trend is likely to continue into 2026 as well.

Human Rights Advocates Denounce Putin’s Call for Russians to Follow Chechens and Promote Teenage Marriages

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 20 – In response to Putin’s attempt to boost the fertility rate in Russia and thus brake the decline in the number of Russians, officials there have promoted teenage pregnancies. But this effort has proved counterproductive by leading to an increase in STDs and higher birthrates among non-Russians but not among ethnic Russians.

            (For discussions of these two unintended consequences of this campaign which has enjoyed Kremlin support even though it has been the federal subjects which have pushed it through, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/08/moscows-promotion-of-teenage.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/04/rf-regions-promoting-teenage.html.).

            Now, in his direct line broadcast, Putin has entered the fray by suggesting that Russians should copy the practice of Chechens and marry as minors so that they will begin having children earlier and will thus be more likely to have more progeny as a result (kavkazr.com/a/putin-nazval-realjno-praviljnymi-braki-mezhdu-nesovershennoletnimi-i-privel-v-primer-semjyu-kadyrova/33627993.html).

            That has sparked a firestorm of criticism by human rights activists who point out that such marriages are arranged by parents, ignore the rights of the young women in them, and often involve the use of violence to keep young women involved (kavkazr.com/a/pravozaschitniki-raskritikovali-predlozhenie-putina-zhenitj-detey/33629760.html).

            Moreover, Putin’s proposal ignores three other things: the birthrate in Chechnya has been falling despite allowing these medieval practices, women in that republic and other parts of the North Caucasus have organized to end them, and extending such practices to other parts of the Russia will give the Kremlin a black eye as far as many people of good will are concerned.

Non-Russians Face Widespread Discrimination in Housing – Except in Non-Russian Republics

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 19 – Russian law prohibits anyone who wants to rent or sell property from declaring that they will do so “only to Slavs” or even “only to ethnic Russians. But that form of discrimination against non-Russians remain widespread – except in non-Russian republics where few owners violate this law, according to a Replika investigation.

            Replika examined advertisements in 30 urban markets across the Russian Federation and found that advertisers in these places ranged from two to three percent to more than seven percent of all posted on Avito portal where owners can advertise housing for rent or sale (thereplica.io/post/ethnic-discrimination).

            Avito does not police itself, telling advertisers that they must obey all Russian laws but not refusing to post advertisements that violate the law, Replika says. But this is only the tip of the iceberg as far as this problem is concerned because many owners don’t post this information but discriminate against non-Slavs or non-Russians on basis of name or appearance.

            Moreover, the authorities rarely bring cases against those who violate this law; and when they do, the news portal says, they do not impose significant punishments. As a result, while such discrimination remains illegal as Moscow is proud to point out, it continues and affects hundreds if not thousands of residents of the Russian Federation every year.

            The happy exception to this pattern is to be found in non-Russian republics where it is rare, perhaps because people there have either learned to live with members of other nationalities more comfortably or believe that non-Russian officials will enforce the law more vigorously and that there is a greater risk that those who violate it will not escape punishment.

            This is yet another reason why non-Russians oppose the demise of their republics, something Vladimir Putin has tried in fits and starts by trying to amalgamate them with neighboring and predominately ethnic Russian oblasts and krays -- and why loyalty among non-Russians to these republics may in fact be growing rather than declining, despite widespread suggestions to the contrary.   

Circassians are One of Largest 'Dispersed Nations' in the World, EchoFM Notes in Its Latest Profile of Peoples Russia has Brought under Its Rule

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 19 – Last month, EchoFM, a Russian portal known primarily for posting articles by others, launched a series on the history and current state of nations Russia has absorbed within its empire. The Circassians are the latest to receive this coverage in a 9200-word article (echofm.online/programs/otkuda-est-poshla-ocherki-po-istorii-imperii/otkuda-est-poshla-ocherki-po-istorii-imperii-cherkesiya).

            Other nations within the current borders of the Russian Federation who have received this treatment already include the Tatars, the peoples of Karelia, the Komi, the Bashkorts, and the Chukchis. (For the URLS of the EchoFM articles about them, see echofm.online/programs/otkuda-est-poshla-ocherki-po-istorii-imperii).

            Dzhem Kumuk concludes his essay on the Circassians with the following important words: “The Circassian people have become one of the largest "scattered" nations in the world, numbering approximately 5-6 million people in 50 countries. A nation without a single territory, but with a memory of it.”

And he adds: The Circassians “are united not by borders, but by memory and a shared destiny. A people who preserve their identity while simultaneously living in the mountains of the Caucasus, in the Jordan Valley, in Turkish Antalya, and on the streets of New York. Despite their dramatic fate, this people has survived.”

Islamist Radicals, Some of Whom are Migrants from Central Asia, have Become ‘Third Force’ in Russian Prisons, CSPCI Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 20 – Until recently, inmates in Russian penal institutions were divided between those controlled by criminal authorities known as “thieves in law” and those controlled by the camp administration. The first controlled what has come to be called the “black zones” in prisons and camps while the second what is usually labelled “red,” a survival from Soviet times.

            But now, according to a new study by the Center for Support of Public and Civil Initiatives (CSPCI), a third “green” zone has emerged consisting of Muslim prisoners who are increasing led by Islamist radicals, many of whom are migrants from Central Asia (akcent.site/eksklyuziv/43568).

            Concern about the ways in which Islamists are recruiting other Muslims in prison has existed for some time (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2012/12/window-on-eurasia-incarcerated.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/02/central-asians-in-russian-prison-said.html).

            But as the number of Muslims and Muslim migrant workers has increased, it appears to have assumed new and more threatening dimensions, a problem exacerbated by corruption of Russian jailors and Moscow’s problems in employing enough of the latter to control the prison population and especially its Muslim component.

Kremlin Aide Says Russia Now has a New Triad of Defining Values in Place of Uvarov’s ‘Orthodoxy, Autocracy and Nationality’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 19 – Boris Rapoport, deputy head of the Presidential Administration’s Administration for Monitoring and Analysis of Social Processes, says Russia has moved on beyond tsarist education minister Serey Uvarov’s 1833 as a country defined by “Orthodoxy, Autocracy and Nationality.”

            Now, the Kremlin aide says, Russia is characterized by a new trinity, “a sovereign country, traditional society and a social state” which he defines in an article in the new issue of the Civic Education Notebook (gumilev-center.ru/v-kremle-predlozhili-zamenu-izvestnojj-triade-samoderzhavie-pravoslavie-narodnost/).

            According to Rappoport, sovereignty consists of “unity around the leader and defense against foreign threats,” traditional society means “the continuity of generations and faith in traditions and spiritual values, and a social state is about “the defense of citizens under conditions of growing inequality.”

            Although the Kremlin aide writes as it what he is doing is simply summing up a change that has already occurred, his notions are already generating the kind of sharp criticism that means his ideas may not be as universally accepted as he implies (e.g., ng.ru/editorial/2025-12-18/2_9404_red.html).

            There have been other attempts to replace the Uvarov triad, but Rappoport’s is the most extensive of recent ones and comes from the most senior official to take up this task. Consequently,  he is likely right that his triad is one that many in the Kremlin do already accept although it is far from clear that most Russians  accept either it or his definitions. 

‘No Matter How Much Water Comes to Central Asia from Siberian Rivers, It will Be Too Little if Central Asians Don’t Learn to Economize,’ Tashkent Expert Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – Global warning means that Uzbekistan is now receiving just over half as much water each year as it did in 1991, a period when the population continued to rise. The situation in other Central Asian states is similar, Bakhtiyor Ergashev says; and so many in the region put their hopes in the diversion of Siberian river water.

            But “no matter how much water” might come from that direction – and Russia has an interest in promoting such diversion – “it will be too little if Central Asians don’t learn how to economize their use of water, the director of the Ma’no Center for Research Initiatives in Tashken says (asia24.media/news/bakhtiyer-ergashev-skolko-by-vody-ni-prishlo-iz-sibirskikh-rek-ee-budet-malo-esli-my-ne-nauchimsya-e/).

            Most of the water coming into Uzbekistan goes to agriculture, but only ten percent of the fields have modern water-saving irrigation systems. Unless that changes, there soon won’t be enough water for both agriculture and human needs, potentially setting the stage for outmigration or worse.

            What must happen, Ergashev says, is for Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries to set a price for water rather than continuing to debate whether it should be a free good. If water has a price, then those who use it or want to will be compelled to seek the most efficient way to use the water.

            Putting a price on water, he continues, will also add to Russia’s interests in developing a revised version of the Siberian river diversion project that Moscow earlier rejected. Moscow will make money by selling water to others, have a better path for water from melting permafrost than sending into the Arctic, and gain geopolitically if such a project now goes forward.

            But perhaps the most important reason for that lies elsewhere, the Uzbek expert says. The new project is not about canals which will lose enormous amounts of water from evaporation and filtration but about super-sized pipelines not available 40 years ago that today almost all experts say is the most efficient and least environmentally harmful way for this project to be realized.

 

           

Huntington’s Ideas on ‘Clash of Civilizations’ Behind Patriarch Kirill’s Development of ‘Russian World’ Concept that the Kremlin is Now Pushing, Govorun Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – Patriarch Kirill was inspired more than a decade ago by the ideas of US political scientist Samuel Huntington about “the clash of civilizations” to come up with the notion of “a Russian world” more than a decade ago and develop it in the direction of full-fledged fascism, Kirill Govorun says.

            Like many on the extreme right, the Russian theologian who worked with Kirill but then broke with the ROC leader and now lives in the United States, the current patriarch is unlikely to have read Huntington’s works but rather absorbed summaries prepared by his subordinates, including the late Vsevolod Chaplin (pointmedia.io/story/6943cfc0e657f59b666dce8f).

            After Kirill accepted the idea of a Russian world, its definition was developed by Aleksandr Shchipkov, a Russian Orthodox educator and thinker close to Kirill, into the set of ideas Putin and other Russian leaders now regularly talk about, ideas that are increasingly close to fascism.

            The idea of a Russian world as articulated by Kirill and  his aides was recently denounced as a heresy by some 90 church leaders from across Europe at a conference on the subject in Helsinki earlier this month (euromaidanpress.com/2025/12/09/114-european-churches-do-what-wcc-wouldnt-declare-russias-holy-war-heresy/).

Putin and Tokayev Keep Saying They’ve Agreed to Open Russian Schools in Kazakhstan and Kazakh Schools in Russia But Nothing is Happening, ‘Spik’ News Agency Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – Almost every time Vladimir Putin and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan respectively, have met over the last three years, they have announced their commitment to opening Russian schools in Kazakhstan and Kazakh schools in the Russian Federation.

            Kazakhs were encouraged by this, the Spik news agency says, because at present there are about 1,000 Russian language schools and 2,000 mixed Russian-Kazakh schools in Kazakhstan but not a single Kazakh or mixed Kazakh-Russian school in the Russian Federation (spik.kz/2500-otkrytie-kazahskih-shkol-v-rossii-i-russkih-v-kazahstane-poka-odni-slova.html).

            But despite the promises of the presidents, nothing has happened. Instead, Russian speakers in Kazakhstan have schools that serve them in their native language; but Kazakh speakers in the Russian Federation don’t have schools in their native language despite the presence of hundreds of thousands of Kazakhs there.

            The Kazakhstan news agency suggests that this imbalance is one of the most important factors stimulating the rise of Kazakh nationalism and making such feelings more anti-Russian than they would otherwise be, a trend that has come to a head in recent months with controversy swirling around plans for yet another Russian-Kazakh school in Kazakhstan.

Arctic Must No Longer Be Viewed as a Limitless and Undeveloped Frontier, Zemlyansky Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – Most officials east and west view the Arctic as a frontier, a largely empty place that businesses and countries can exploit for their own purposes without worrying about the consequences for the region itself, according to Vitaly Zemlyansky, a Russian specialist on the region who now works at the University of Zurich.

            As a result, Russia and other countries interested in the region have taken actions that have undermined the human and natural communities who live there and led to the spread of the consequences of those actions to the rest of the world as well, he says (posle.media/article/nuzhno-otkazatsya-ot-vzglyada-na-arktiku-kak-frontir).

            Global warming has exacerbated these problems, Zemlyansky says. It has opened more portions of the Arctic for development even though it is undercutting human infrastructure built there, and this has led to the spread of the view of the Arctic as an inexhaustible reserve of resources whose development is unlimited.

            But that ignores two important facts that are all too often neglected. On the one hand, much of the Arctic is already heavily developed, especially in its Russian sections, but overall because oil and gas rigs are keeping the lights on 24 hours a day there in an increasing share of the country.

            And on the other, while the size of mineral reserves there is enormous, developing them is going to be extremely damaging unless the international community comes together and agrees on rules for doing so. If that doesn’t happen, then the Arctic will be despoiled and both its residents and those of the rest of the world will suffer.

            As people who live and work in the Arctic often say, Zemlyansky adds, “what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” a fact of life that too many governments in their race for resources, profits and power are all too often inclined to forget. 

Kyiv Honors Two North Caucasians who Fought Russian Imperialism by Naming a Street for Sheikh Mansur and a Square for Imam Shamil

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – Kyiv has honored two North Caucasians who fought Russian imperialism in tsarist times by naming a street in the Ukrainian capital after Sheik Mansur and a square there after Imam Shamil, a move that also honors two North Caucasian units now fighting for Ukraine and highlights Ukraine’s support for the non-Russians in Putin’s empire.

            Sheikh Mansur, it will be recalled, was the leader of the Caucasian mountaineers at the end of the 18^th century, and Imam Shamil was the leader of the movement of Dagestani and other peoples of the region to block Russian imperial expansion (kavkazr.com/a/vozvraschenie-smyslov-sheyh-mansur-i-imam-shamilj-na-ulitsah-kieva/33619321.html).

            In part, what Kyiv has done is part of its general de-Russification program; but there are two other reasons for calling attention to this development: On the one hand, it highlights the importance and activism of North Caucasians who have come to Ukraine to resist Putin’s expanded invasion of that country since 2022.

            And on the other – and this is by far the more important – it underscores Kyiv’s commitment to help those nations suffering under Russian imperialism to protect their national identities and seek independence (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/10/ukraine-wants-to-support-non-russian.html).  

Increasing Reliance on Denunciations in Putin's Russia Threatens the State Itself, Utekhin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – Although they do not yet equal the scope they had in Stalin’s times, enunciations are again increasing in number in the Russian Federation; and Ilya Utekhin warns that their appearance and use by the state and the countermeasures that victims of such actions have adopted risk becoming a serious threat to the state itself.

            The anthropologist who earlier taught at St. Petersburg’s European University says that ever more Russians at risk of becoming victims of denunciations have taken preemptive actions to defend themselves by suggesting that those making such charges are guilty of falsification or worse (mostmedia.org/ru/posts/signaly-snizu-v-rossyskie-shkoly-i-universitety-vernulis-donosy).

            That creates problems for officials who rely on denunciations to do their jobs, he says; but even more than that, “the authorities who operate on the basis of denunciations cease to see reality and instead see only a mirror-image of their own fantasies” given that those who make denunciations do what they do to try to prove their loyalty.

            “If the state’s only connection with its citizens is material goods coming from above and denunciations from below, the state begins to operate on the basis of its own picture of the world, something which makes the system ever more inadequate and increases the risk of sharp and even dangerous decisions,” Utekhin says.

            In Stalin’s time, other experts say, “the Soviet organs could use denunciations as sources of information but they couldn’t give the initiative to citizens” by relying on such documents. “This would have been too chaotic.” Now, however, in Putin’s time, the powers that be are more prepared to rely on denunciations, especially when they concern young people and schools.

            And that reflects another change, Utekhin continues. “In the USSR, denunciations were a confirmation of loyalty to the state, but in present-day Russia, they provide support for the myth that society is unified in its patriotic feelings.” As a result, “when the state increases repressions, the number of denunciations always grows.”

            “In many cases,” he points out, “the organs themselves are behind the complaints in order to create the illusion that ‘it is society which demands punishments’ and not the state itself. And if the state supports them, there will always appear people ready to occupy that niche” and engage in denunciations.”

            That leaves the Russian state in a difficult state because “the powers cannot ignore such people as any attempt not to react will lead to new complaints, already about “the criminal inactivity’ of the organs themselves,” a danger that brings with it that the problem of denunciations for society and for the state will only increase. 

Since 2022, Russia has Lost Political Influence in Former Soviet Republics but Nearly Doubled Its Trade with Them, Barbashin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – There is nearly universal recognition that Putin’s war in Ukraine has cost Moscow political influence across the former Soviet space, with other countries, first and foremost China and the United States gaining influence as a result, according to Anton Barbashin, editor of The Riddle portal.

            Attention to this Russia loss has overshadowed and often obscured another trend likely to become increasingly important. Since 2020, before the start of Putin’s war, and now, trade turnover between Russia and these countries has nearly doubled from 63 billion US dollars to 125 billion US dollars in 2024 (ridl.io/ru/sosedi-strategicheskoj-vazhnosti/).

            Trade between the non-Russian countries of the former Soviet space and China has increased only slightly more – and yet in that case, Barbashin says, many observers treat that growth as indicative of growing Chinese influence while they often ignore the fact that Russian trade with these countries increased nearly as much.

            In many cases, this Russian-non-Russian trade has involved the re-export of goods under sanction from the non-Russian countries to Russia, an indication that the war has had exactly the opposite effect on economic relations between Moscow and these other countries. Indeed, the analyst says, one could say the war has led the Kremlin to “rediscover” the former Soviet space.

            Barbashin gives statistics about all this for each of the countries in the region, noting that the only former Soviet republic (other than the Baltic states) where trade has actually fallen since the start of the war is Moldova, which has reoriented its economic ties away from Russia to the European Union. 

            Such expanded trade between Russia and the other non-Russian countries in the former Soviet space which is likely to continue lays the groundwork for an expansion in political influence eventually, albeit likely of a kind less enthusiastic and more pragmatic than was the case earlier, according to Barbashin.

Moscow’s Blaming School Violence on Foreign Websites Gets the Situation Exactly Backwards and Reduces Chance of Reducing Attacks, Arkhipova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec.16 – Whenever a Russian student attacks another, Moscow officials are quick to blame what they say is the nefarious influence of foreign websites. But doing so not only gets the explanation exactly backward but limits still further any genuinely effective efforts to reduce such violence, according to Aleksandra Arkipova.

            The independent Russian anthropologist says that Russian youths turn to foreign websites about or even celebrating violence only after conditions in their own lives dispose them to violence and they are looking for validation. Blaming the sites rather than other factors ignores that reality (t.me/anthro_fun/3741 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/prichinno-sledstvennaya-zavisimost-v-takih-sluchayah-obratnya).

            That mistake is bad enough in and of itself, but its consequences are worse, Arkhipova says. It reduces in Russia attention to violence in the home, racism and xenophobia and means that the ways in which these phenomena spread to the schools is not addresses, unlike in the US and elsewhere where more psychologists are now working in schools and violence is down.

            While attacks still continue in other countries, she continues, they have been reduced in number while in the Russian Federation on the contrary, they are increasing in number and ferocity because Moscow won’t face up to the domestic roots of such violence and take action, including deploying psychologists to the schools.

Russian Houses Now in 72 Countries Spread Kremlin Propaganda about Ukraine and Seek to Normalize War, ‘Point Media’ Commentator Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 17 – During the Cold War, many in the West said that “we send diplomats to Moscow and the Soviets treat them as spies while the Soviets send spies to Western capitals and we treat them like diplomats.” Tragically, and despite expectations, that pattern continues to hold.

            The way in which the Putin regime mistreats Western officials who come to Russia is legendary, but less well known is that his government has found it even easier to send its agents to the West to conduct propaganda and even espionage now given that many in Western governments have convinced themselves that the world has changed.

            That makes a new article by Aleksey Blokhin, a journalist for the PointMedia portal, in about the 87 Russian Houses that Moscow currently maintains in 72 countries around the world especially important, given that many governments against whom these institutions are working are doing nothing about them (pointmedia.io/story/6942adc8e657f59b666dce8d).

            “Officially,” he writes, “’Russian Houses work to promote Russian culture abroad,” and “in reality, if one looks at the calendars of the activities of any of them, the majority of events are exclusively cultural.”  But “beneath this cultural cover” is their real purpose: forming an information milieu in which Kremlin policies appear normal, justified or inevitable.”

            He gives numerous heavily footnoted examples to support that conclusion, including courses for journalists, propaganda exhibits, lectures by visiting Russian experts, programs for young people including tours and study in the Russian Federation, and even attraction of foreigners to come to Russia and then fight in Ukraine.

            According to Blokhin, “foreign governments recognize this but few are reacting.” Since Putin launched his expanded war in Ukraine in 2022, some have been closed but mostly only in eastern and southern Europe. Elsewhere, they continue to operate and to undermine the host governments and societies.

Many Russian Governors View Their Posts as Temporary Assignments and Their Populations as ‘Aboriginals,’ Krichevsky Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – Most governors of Russia’s federal subjects are “people pulled from comfortable positions in Moscow and dispatched to the regions,” an assignment they view “not so much as exile but as a temporary business trip,” according to Nikita Krichevsky, a senior Russian economist who has specialized on regional affairs.

            As a result, he says, such people “view the local residents as if they were aborigines” and avoid establishing “any contacts” with them or with local elites, something that inevitably lands them in difficulties that they assume they can always solve by asking Moscow for help (club-rf.ru/detail/7836).

            According to Krichevsky, these attitudes reflect a problem with deeper roots in their biographies: “many of the current governors, born in the 1970s and 80s, are children of the "single-parent" generation, where mothers and grandmothers were responsible for their upbringing … with such an upbringing, there can be no talk of responsibility.”

Generational Shifts in the Workforce Adding to the Problems of the Russian Economy, Tushaliyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 18 – The Russian economy faces a number of serious challenges, but one of these that so far has received little attention is the generational one, the fact that in a single workspace there are currently representatives of three distinct generations and what works with one doesn’t necessarily work with the others, according to Aleksandr Tushaliyev.

            The editor of the Russian journal, A Sovereign Economy, and a frequent commentator for the Readovka portal says that if the two oldest groups, those born between 1965 and 1980 and between 1981 and 1996 are somewhat similar, those born between 1997 and 2010, “the zoomers,” are fundamentally different (readovka.news/news/235526/).

            If the first two most highly value stability, status and respect for the collective, he says, the third gives priority to flexibility, comfort and their own mental health. This difference has led to the dismissal of many zoomers, but those companies who have adapted to them have been able to take advantage of their special psychology, Tushaliyev says.

            Because managers typically come from the older age groups, he continues, they often adopt strategies that work for people like them but don’t work with younger people who are less concerned with the things the managers value and more concerned with maximizing their own values.

            This has led to rapid turnover among the young many of whom don’t find it easy or even acceptable to conform to the business habits of older generations, and that in turn is creating problems not only with staffing but with production, thereby adding to all the other problems of the Russian economy.

West Paralyzed by Fear of Russia’s Strategic Defeat, League of Free Nations Activist Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 16 – Just as was the case before 1991 when some in the West suggested that the disintegration of the USSR would lead to “a Yugoslavia with nukes,” so now again many in the West now openly express the view that the strategic defeat of Russia and the coming apart of Moscow’s empire is more dangerous than the Kremlin is now, Kamil Sagaev says.

            The League of Free Nations activist who was trained in China and Great Britain notes that while most observers agree that “Russia has been a threat for centuries,” they continue to insist that “her defeat is ‘unacceptable’” and argue that “Russia must not lose or new state will take its place and could start wars with each other” (region.expert/west-afraid/).

            Driven by the belief that the world will have to continue to contend with “a single aggressive empire” or “the possibility of chaos” from the appearance of new states, the West is “taking the side of the empire” and “offered the people of Russia the role of ‘hostages for rent’” whose “freedom would be dangerous to the convenience” of the West.

            It is both reasonable and logical to ask, Sagaev says, “how is such thinking different from Russian imperial doctrine? The answer is an unpleasant one: “In no way” because “it is the same fear of the freedom of peoples just under a different flag,” even though those in the West promoting this notion are themselves the result of the demise of empires.

            And this question leads to another one that no one wants to have posed: “why did you [in the West] yourselves descendants of collapsed empires, appoint the peoples of Russia the role of eternal subjects?”

            “If Russia inevitably collapses economically in the coming years, what are you going to do? Pour money into her until the end? Frozen reserves to give away? Issue new loans from European banks to prolong the life of a dying empire?” the League of Free Nations activist asks rhetorically.

And he points out that “this is not politics anymore. This is fear elevated to the rank of doctrine. Freedom cannot be canceled by external fear” because “empire always fall. History knows no exceptions but every time before a breakup, there is someone who demands that its people wait because ‘this is not the time.’”

But of course, Sagayev says, “the time is always the same: the time of freedom comes when people stop asking for permission.”

Russian Economy Now in Decline in All Sectors Except Military Ones, Academy of Sciences Institute Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 16 – In its latest quarterly assessment of the current situation of the Russian economy and its prospects, the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences says that the Russian economy is in decline in all sectors except the military industry one and that this negative trend will continue into 2026 and possibly beyond.

Overall, the institute says, economic growth in Russia ended more than a year ago in November 2024, although this was hidden from casual observers by military spending. But now there is no question that the Russian economy is in recession and will remain there for some time (ecfor.ru/publication/kvartalnyj-prognoz-vvp-vypusk-68/).

This trend reflects more than just the shift to military spending. “Unfavorable demographic trends are exacerbating labor shortages, the technological gap with developed countries and China is increasing, and revenues from hydrocarbon exports and resource rents” are also having an impact, the institute continues.

Moreover, high interest rates “are eating away at the main investment resource” companies have – their own funds. As a result, “corporate profits in real terms decreased by 15.6 percent in the first nine months of 2025 and the radio of interest payments to profits approached 60 percent.” In addition, “the debt burden rose significantly” across the board.

“In the third quarter,” the institute reports, “Rosstat reported a real decline in investments for the first time since 2022, by some 3.1 percent year on year,” with the greatest declines in capital expenditure being on infrastructure where spending fell one percent and equipment and machinery where it fell 15 percent.”

And the institute concludes: “this decline in investment activity will lead to an even greater decline in output, and that will be followed by a reduction in employment and consumer demand and an increase in past-due debt of the population and business. In the worst-case scenario, that will result in a crisis of non-payments.”

Putin Regime Not Only Russianizing Non-Russians but Russifying Non-Russian Languages

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 16 – Vladimir Putin has long sought to get non-Russians to use Russian instead of their native languages as their primary means of communication, an effort that has reduced the number of non-Russian speakers of those languages and one that has attracted enormous attention.

            But there is a second process going on that also has fateful consequences for non-Russians who continue to speak their native languages and that is the Russification of these languages among people who speak both and go back and forth between them, a process that has so far attracted little attention.

            That gap in the investigation of the language situation in the Russian Federation is about to be rectified at least in part in Tuva where scholars have launched research into the ways in which Russian is having an impact on the vocabulary and even the syntax of Tuvan (tuvaonline.ru/2025/12/14/uchenye-tigpi-vyigrali-grant-rossiyskogo-nauchnogo-fonda-na-izuchenie-tuvinsko-russkogo-bilingvizma.html).

              Scholars at the Tuvan Institute of Humanities and Applied Social Economic Research say that up to now, this impact, while noted by speakers, “has not become the subject of complex scientific analysis.” They say that they hope to correct that at least in part, an effort that may prompt researchers in other non-Russian republics to do the same.

            Their goal is “to conduct the first multi-faceted study of how the Russian language influences the speech of Tuvan bilinguals at all levels, from pronunciation to syntax,” a comprehensive approach that “will not only allow researchers to identify interference phenomena but also to understand the mechanisms underlying them.”

            And they argue that the results of their study “will have great practical significance,” helping to improve instruction in both languages and serving as “a serious scientific basis for a balanced and effective language policy aimed at maintaining balance and preserving the purity of the Tuvan language.”

Another Step away from Russian Scripts toward a Common Turkic One in Central Asia

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 16 – On December 15, Turkic peoples and their friends celebrated the first World Day of Turkic Languages that UNESCO created. In honor of this day, Turkey released two books from Central Asia that have long appeared only in Russia’s Cyrillic alphabet in a common Turkic script based on the Latin one of the West.

            The four Turkic countries of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have taken steps to develop and then introduce Latin-based scripts for their national languages which the Soviets insisted from the 1930s on use only Cyrillic ones. But the dream of many in the region and in Turkey is for them to have a common Turkic script.

            Were such a script to be introduced, it would function in much the same way as the Persido-Arabic script did in pre-Soviet times, making it possible for speakers in one country to read and otherwise interact with speakers in another without translation and thus promoting a new union and overcome the narrow nationalisms that arose after Soviet linguistic engineering.

            To demonstrate the possibilities that a common Turkic alphabet offers, Turkey and its allies in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan published two works, Kazakh enlightener Abai Qūnanbaiūly’s Words of Instruction and Kyrgyz novelist Chingiz Aitmatov’s The White Boat in the common Turkic alphabet Ankara has developed.

            While this is a small step, it follows on the heels of Turkey’s decision to refer to Central Asia from now on by its former name Turkistan, “the land of the Turks;” and many Russians are outraged by what this will mean as far as Russia’s influence in the region is concerned, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports (ng.ru/cis/2025-12-15/1_9401_alphabet.html).

Aleksandr Kobrinsky, the director of the Moscow Agency of Ethno-National Strategy, reflects such concerns when he argues that “it is obvious that the transition to a common Turkic alphabet is intended not only and not so much to simplify communication among Turkic peoples and strengthen cultural cooperation” as to split off Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from Russia.”