Despite Recent Declines, Fertility Rates in Central Asian Countries Average More than Twice That Metric in Russian Federation

Paul Goble

            Staunton, April 16 – Fertility rates in Central Asia, the number of children per woman per lifetime, are still 1.5 to more than twice the corresponding figure for the Russian Federation and all more than the replacement figure of 2.2, a pattern that means the population of that region is increasing both absolutely and relative to Russia.

            The figure for Tajikistan is 3.3; for Kyrgyzstan, 2.9; for Kazakhstan, 2.8; for Uzbekistan, 2.7 and for Turkmenistan, 2.6; while that for the Russian Federation is below 1.4 (podrobno.uz/cat/world/detey-vse-menshe-v-stranakh-tsentralnoy-azii-znachitelno-sokratilas-rozhdaemost/).

            Russian commentators who spend much of their time following Putin and calling for a rise in fertility rates are seeking to put the best face on this by suggesting that the high rates in the Central Asian countries “threaten their security” (ritmeurasia.ru/news--2026-04-16--rost-naselenija-srednej-azii-ugrozhaet-ee-stabilnosti-87118).

            These Russian writers say that high birthrates make it difficult if not impossible for the countries to provide enough jobs for young people and force ever more of the residents of these countries to move to other countries and to the Russian Federation in the first place to find employment.

            That high fertility rates can be a problem in that regard is beyond question; but they also mean that the Central Asian countries are rapidly increasing in size and also can afford expanded pension payments, something that countries like the Russian Federation where rates are below replacement level cannot do.