Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 24 – The Kazakhstan
government has recommitted itself to replacing its Cyrillic-based alphabet with
a Latin-based one by 2025, a step Astana views as necessary to integrate the
country into the international community but one that Moscow views as the latest
effort by Kazakhstan to leave the Russian orbit or at a minimum reinforce its
independence.
In a “Novaya gazeta” article
significantly entitled “Goodbye, Russian World,” journalist Vyacheslav Polovinko
suggests that the latest Astana moves may be only part of the current election
campaign in that Central Asian country but that they are a clear signal to
Russia of where Kazakhstan is heading (novayagazeta.ru/politics/71942.html).
Last week, Kazakhstan’s culture
minister, Arustanbek Mukhamediuly said that Astana has “already adopted an
official program” to replace the Cyrillic script with a Latin one and that this
program will be carried out “exactly on time by 2025,” although he conceded that many details of the
transition must still be worked out.
“The national specifics of the pronunciation
of Kazakh letters require additional decisions,” the minister said. “This is
not simple [and it won’t be inexpensive] but it is necessary to integrate in
the least painful way in the international community.”
According to Polovinko, Russian
analysts believe that two things are behind this latest Astana commitment: “the
authorities are again playing with national groups before elections, and at the
same time are sending a signal to Moscow about their desire to escape the orbit
of ‘the Russian world.’”
Kazakhstan has previous experience
with the Latin script. In the 1920s, the Soviets introduced a Latin-base script
for it and other Turkic peoples in order to wean them off Arabic and promote a
rapid growth in literacy. But then in
the 1930s, Stalin imposed a Cyrillic script on all of them.
That meant, Gasan Guseynov of Moscow’s
Higher School of Economics says, that since that time, “all contacts of the
bearers of Turkic languages with the rest of the world were realized through Russian
mediation,” something that restricted their own importance and offended many of
them as well.
Indeed, in the words of Dos Kushim,
a Kazakh analyst, recently, “the Cyrillic alphabet [has been] like a cursed
mark of Russian colonialism” (365info.kz/2016/02/dos-kushim-sejchas-ne-vremya-perehodit-na-latinitsu/).
And since 1991, Kazakh intellectuals and the government have talked about
making a shift to the Latin script.
The
major question for Moscow, Polovinko says, is why Astana is choosing to take
this step just now. Some Russian analysts blame the Turks because “for Russia
which now nervously reacts to everything Turkish, the shift of Kazakhstan from ‘Russian’
Cyrillic to ‘Turkish’ Latin is a quite painful step.”
Arkady
Dubnov, a specialist on Central Asia, says that Kazakhs have a natural interest
in promoting their national identity but that Russian government statements about
the Russian world and the importance of Cyrillic in maintaining it are pushing
them to move in this direction even more rapidly than they otherwise would.
Three
years ago, Vyacheslav Pugachev, who was then head of the Russian agency for CIS
affairs, said that “even specialists do not understand why” Kazakhstan has been
talking about shifting to the Latin script because “the Western world which
uses Latin is losing its political and cultural influence in the world” (glavcom.ua/news/134049.html).
Looking
forward, Guseynov adds that this step will certainly introduce a certain number
of problems in the relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia, not least of
which will be new pressures from the Turkic peoples on the territory of the Russian
Federation to make this change as well, something they are currently prohibited
by Russian law from doing.
And
he hopes that Astana will back off after the current election campaign. Indeed,
he says, it may be that talk about shifting from Cyrillic to Latin may be
nothing more than a campaign slogan, especially given that Nursultan Nazarbayev
has warned against offending Russian speakers there – a clear case, he says, of
a politician trying to have it both ways.
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