Paul Goble
Staunton,
Oct. 23 – Iran is the only one of the five signatories of the 2018 convention
on the delimitation of the Caspian Sea which has not ratified that accord.
Iran’s unwillingness to do so, something that appears to be growing rather than
decreasing, means that the convention has not gone into effect.
Conservatives
in Iran have always believed that the accord gives Iran too little and other
states too much, and their influence in the Tehran government has only
increased after the recent elections, Vladislav Kondratyev, editor of Kaspiysky
vestnik says (casp-geo.ru/vse-ratifitsirovali-konventsiyu-po-statusu-kaspiya-krome-irana-chego-zhdut-v-tegerane/).
Moscow
very much wants the accord to go into force, and it is playing up its provision
that the signatories will not allow any country other than the signatory states
to have a military presence on the inland sea. That may win support for the
convention in Iran but only at the price of angering Azerbaijan which has been
conducting exercises there with Turkey.
So
far at least, Kondratyev suggests, that Russian effort has not led to a change
of heart in Tehran; but the promotion of this idea has led to an exacerbation
of relations between Azerbaijan and Iran, something that in and of itself is
likely to make Iranian ratification of the accord more rather than less
difficult.
Consequently,
three years after the signing of the delimitation agreement, the actual legal
situation on the sea has not changed even though the countries which have
ratified the accord are generally observing its provisions. And thus the hopes
raised in 2018 remain far from fully realized.
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