Paul Goble
Staunton, Mar. 15 – In the last two centuries, Russia has been fundamentally transformed by all the wars it has taken part in; and there is every reason to believe that it will be changed in significant ways by its war in Ukraine regardless of the outcome and especially because it is likely to lose in key ways, Burkhan Nurmukhamedov says.
But the Kazakh political scientist and activist says that in most respects, Russia “will not be able to win in principle” because “there has taken place the deepest possible split in the Slavic world,” something neither victory or defeat of its armed forces on the ground will change (qmonitor.kz/politics/3888).
Specifying exactly what changes will occur in Russia or its neighbors or when is difficult, Nurmukhamedov says. “It is possible that the rulers of these countries will retire,” but it seems certain that whether that happens or not in the case of Russia, Western sanctions are going to remain in place for a long time.
Most people assume that Russia will become more dependent on China, although some think that it will be able to develop on its own successfully. The Kazakh analyst and politician says he is skeptical about that. Iran is a bad example as it has a strong ethnic and religious component “which one doesn’t see in Russia.”
The sources of Russia’s current disastrous situation are to be found in the ideology of “the so-called Russian world.” Initially, this was a cultural idea; but “gradually it was transformed into an ideology with elements of extremism and militance.” If Russia is going to recover, it must revise this concept.
Finally, Nurmukhamedov says that he doesn’t exclude the possibility that Russia will attack Kazakhstan next but argues that whether that happens “depends in the first instance on us ourselves.” Kazakhstan citizens must unite as a nation as Ukraine has and eliminate any divide between the government and the population.
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