Paul Goble
Staunton, April 2 – “If we compare the Winter War [Stalin conducted against Finland] and the Russian ‘special operation’ in Ukraine [Putin is carrying out now], Moscow historian Boris Sokolov says, “the similarities” in expectations, conduct, and quite likely outcome “are striking.”
In a detailed comment for The Insider, Sokolov provides case after case in which what Stalin expected, did, and then was forced to accept anticipates to an amazing degree the same situation in which Putin finds himself today. The details are interesting, but it is the conclusions that are critical (theins.ru/history/249528).
“In 1939,” the Moscow historian writes, “the USSR started a war with Finland, whose scenario now looks surprisingly similar to the invasion of Ukraine. The war with Finland was also supposed to be a rapid blitzkrieg, the success of which was ensured by the overwhelming superiority of the USSR's armed forces.
“The Finnish War,” he continues, “was also presented as self-defense and a response to provocations. The propaganda also spoke about the benefits of the invasion for the civilian population, and the USSR planned to install a puppet government in Finland as well.
“Finally, that war, which too had been badly prepared, ended in total failure, with the troops suffering from lack of supplies and frostbite, being poorly motivated and sustaining much higher casualties. Ultimately, the USSR abandoned the conquest of Finland and limited itself to insignificant territorial gains.”
That precedent is likely to be on the minds of many in the Russian capital including Putin’s given the Kremlin leader’s admiration for and aping of much that Stalin did.
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