Paul Goble
Staunton, Feb. 1 – Andrey Grozin, a specialist on Central Asia at the Moscow Institute for CIS Countries, says Tashkent should appoint a special representative for Karakalpakstan in the Uzbekistan government with the rank of deputy prime minister. Otherwise, he warns, a repetition of protests there last summer could be far bloodier.
Grozin made his proposal after an Uzbek court sentenced the leaders of the Karakalpakstan protests to lengthy terms while letting off those who followed them with only minimal sentences or none at all (ia-centr.ru/experts/olga-vishnyak/uroki-nukusa-dlya-tashkenta-igrat-v-liberalizatsiyu-nuzhno-ostorozhno/).
That is a sensible stopgap measure to deal with protests after they occur, the Moscow expert says; but if Tashkent or any other Central Asian government is to avoid protests when it seeks to modernize, it needs more effective coordination between the capital and the regions and a deputy prime minister is the appropriate level.
A certain amount of turbulence is to be expected with any reforms even those which might appear distant from politics, Grozin continues; but if a government wants to carry out massive reforms as the current leadership in Tashkent does, it has to expect serious problems. Indeed, the danger of such outbursts of public anger is very great.
It must approach all reforms cautiously because this is so; and one of the best ways to have both reform and stability is to create institutional arrangements so that the objections of regions are taken into account early rather than only after protests. Otherwise, Grozin warns, the next wave of demonstrations could end with far more bloodshed.
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