Kyiv Must Carefully Design Its Approaches to Russia’s Non-Russians Because the Latter Vary So Widely, Ukrainian Analysts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 4 – Ukraine is interested in promoting national independence movements in the Russian Federation as part of its strategy to weaken Moscow, but it is under no illusion that all groups inside the current Russian borders have an equal chance to do so or should be approached in the same way.

            The Ukrainian analytic Telegram channel “Russia is Over” (t.me/russiaisover/) contains many of these assessments. Some seek to assess possibilities by comparing one nation to another, as in a recent case where Ukrainian analysts compared the prospects for independence of Tatarstan and those of the Kumyks of Daghestan.

            That intriguing and instructive comparison, originally posted online at t.me/russiaisover/, now has been reposted on the IdelUral portal (idel-ural.org/archives/tatarstan-i-kumykiya-ukrainskij-vzglyad-na-to-u-kogo-bolshe-shansov-na-nezavisimost/#more-19511).

            According to the Ukrainian analysts, the Volga Tatars are used to thinking of themselves above the fray of other non-Russians and to view people from their ethnic community who have achieved senior positions in either Kazan or Moscow as their own and representatives of the nation and to think of Tatarstan as their state.

            The Tatars naturally resent many of Moscow’s restrictions, the Ukrainian analysts continue; but they have learned to play the imperial game and as such are less likely to form a radical nationalist movement or act on its ideas should one appear. That puts them in a very different position from most other non-Russians.

            The Kumyks in contrast, the Ukrainian analysts note, have never had their own republic or their own state institutions and thus do not view those Kumyks who have assumed positions of authority in Daghestan or even at the municipal level to be their representatives. Instead, they “despise them” because they aren’t defending the nation.

            For the Kumyks as a whole, the Ukrainian analysts say, “such Kumyks are traitors.” Moreover, the nation completely rejects the existing state structures are something “alien.” Ukrainians who want to work with these two nations must recognize these differences as failure to do so will lead to mistakes.

            Thus, something that would work in one case wouldn’t in the other. Were official institutions to be sabotaged in Tatarstan, the Tatars would likely react negatively; while if the same actions were taken in Kumyk  areas, the population would likely welcome them and might become more active.

            Because the Tatars have more state structures, they will have an easier time pursuing independence if they choose to do so; but because the Kumyks don’t and are alienated from the state, they are more likely to form radical nationalist movements “capable of shaking Daghestan to its foundations and radically changing the situation there” as far as Moscow is concerned.

            Such destabilization could even force the Russian government to pull more forces from elsewhere, thus compromising its ability to continue its attacks on Ukraine.